17 October 2026, 11:30 UTC

Peterborough vs Burton Albion League One prediction & result

Weston Homes Stadium, Peterborough
Full time2 – 2

Final score: Peterborough 2-2 Burton Albion.

Before kick-off the model made it 38% Peterborough, 28% draw, 34% Burton Albion — fair odds of 2.63, 3.57 and 2.94.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Peterborough at 38%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Peterborough0%Draw4%Burton Albion96%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Owura Edwardsassist: Harry Leonard
2'
30'
⚽Charlie Websterassist: Kgagelo Chauke
45'
🔁Matthew Dennisout: Gbemi Arubi
60'
🔁F. Delapout: Sulyman Krubally
🔁Harry Ashfieldout: Brandon·Singh Khela
66'
🔁Owura Edwardsout: Matthew Garbett
69'
Carl Johnston
77'
78'
Raphael Borges Rodrigues
Brandon·Singh Khela
79'
🔁Harry Leonardout: D. Ormerod
81'
🔁Bolu Shofowokeout: Vernon Masara
82'
82'
🔁Raphael Borges Rodriguesout: Emeka Adeile
82'
🔁Caylon Vickersout: M. O’Mahony
89'
⚽Gbemi Arubi
⚽Matthew Garbett
90+6'
R. Savage
90+7'

Match stats — Peterborough vs Burton Albion

55%Possession45%
20Shots16
6On target6
8Corners4
2.58xG0.91

Goals against chances

Peterborough2 from 2.58 xGless than the chances were worth
Burton Albion2 from 0.91 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Peterborough 4-2-3-1
  • 1A. BassG
  • 2C. JohnstonD
  • 18Lucca MendonçaD
  • 12Joshua FeeneyD
  • 14Harley MillsD
  • 4L. KellyM
  • 45Harry AshfieldM
  • 19Bolu ShofowokeM
  • 10Ethan WilliamsM
  • 11O. EdwardsM
  • 9H. LeonardF
Substitutes
  • 26D. OkagbueD
  • 8B. KhelaM
  • 28M. GarbettM
  • 7Harrison JonesM
  • 27D. OrmerodF
  • 23C. Andeng NdiG
  • 17Vernon MasaraF
Coach: Robert William Savage
Burton Albion 3-4-2-1
  • 34C. AddaiG
  • 6T. SibbickD
  • 26F. DelapD
  • 16C. TiltD
  • 17R. Borges RodriguesM
  • 4K. ChaukeM
  • 12G. EvansM
  • 24Harvey AraujoM
  • 18Caylon VickersM
  • 8C. WebsterM
  • 19M. DennisF
Substitutes
  • 20J. SrahaD
  • 9G. ArubiF
  • 14W. CollarM
  • 32J. KeanG
  • 41Sulyman KruballyM
  • 10Mark O’MahonyF
  • 23Emeka AdeileD
Coach: G. Bowyer

Form going into Peterborough vs Burton Albion

Peterborough

League One

  • W3-1away to Leicester10 October 2026

Burton Albion

All competitions we cover

  • L0-1away to Doncaster10 October 2026
  • L1-3Huddersfield3 October 2026
  • W1-0away to Plymouth26 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

League One table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
22Peterborough132471123-1210
15Burton Albion154562027-717

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Peterborough vs Burton Albion

  • 19 April 2026Peterborough 1–1 Burton AlbionLeague One
  • 18 October 2025Burton Albion 0–1 PeterboroughLeague One
  • 1 January 2025Burton Albion 2–2 PeterboroughLeague One
  • 4 December 2024Peterborough 0–1 Burton AlbionLeague One
  • 9 March 2024Burton Albion 1–3 PeterboroughLeague One

The result against the call

Peterborough and Burton Albion drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Peterborough at 38% and given a draw 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Owura Edwards 2' for Peterborough, Charlie Webster 30' for Burton Albion, Gbemi Arubi 89' for Burton Albion, Matthew Garbett 90+6' for Peterborough. On expected goals it finished 2.58–0.91.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Peterborough a 22.6% chance to finish in the bottom three: 18.7% after a win, 23.0% after a draw, 25.9% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 23.0%.

For Burton Albion the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 5.8% going in: 3.6% after a win, 6.0% after a draw, 7.3% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 6.0%.

Read from our League One season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Peterborough v Burton Albion has moved

First published on 3 Oct at 34% / 30% / 36% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 38% / 28% / 34%: the biggest move is Peterborough's chance of winning, up 4 points.

  1. Peterborough win38%▲ +4
  2. Draw28%▼ −2
  3. Burton Albion win34%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.