Leicester vs Stevenage League One prediction & result
Final score: Leicester 2-2 Stevenage.
Before kick-off the model made it 42% Leicester, 29% draw, 29% Stevenage — fair odds of 2.38, 3.45 and 3.45.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Leicester at 42%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Leicester vs Stevenage
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 29A. McCarthyG
- 16W. O'HoraD
- 15H. SouttarD
- 5C. OkoliD
- 33L. ThomasD
- 6J. LundstramM
- 37W. AlvesM
- 36S. BraybrookeM
- 25L. PageM
- 27K. DoyleM
- 17E. RiisF
- 7W. BurnsF
- 8C. ChaplinF
- 11L. CullenF
- 14B. De Cordova-ReidF
- 24I. KangasniemiD
- 21F. RavizzoliG
- 12W. SmallboneM
- 1T. SetfordG
- 15T. VancootenD
- 16K. CaseyD
- 5C. PiergianniD
- 14S. EarleyD
- 18O. SandersonM
- 23L. ThompsonM
- 8D. PhillipsM
- 44P. PattersonM
- 27B. BroggioM
- 9J. MagennisF
- 28M. MellonF
- 24M. SmithM
- 7T. TaylorM
- 19T. TurhanF
- 12D. BardenG
- 20C. CampbellM
- 39Alfie ThornettD
Form going into Leicester vs Stevenage
Leicester
League One
- W3-0Wigan27 October 2026
- L1-2away to Luton24 October 2026
- W4-0away to Bromley20 October 2026
- W2-1Doncaster17 October 2026
Stevenage
League One
- L0-1Milton Keynes Dons24 October 2026
- W3-0Plymouth20 October 2026
- L0-2away to Bradford17 October 2026
- W1-0Wigan10 October 2026
What these results say
- Leicester scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for Leicester had three goals or more.
- Leicester won 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Stevenage had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
League One table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Leicester | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 22 | 19 | +3 | 19 |
| 16 | Stevenage | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 17 | 13 | +4 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Leicester vs Stevenage
- 6 October 2026Stevenage 2–1 LeicesterEFL Trophy
Leading scorers: Leicester and Stevenage
Leicester
GoalsAssists
- E. Riis61
Stevenage
No player in League One's leading scorers — 17 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Leicester and Stevenage drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Leicester at 42% and given a draw 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Samuel Charles Braybrooke 2' for Leicester, Ben Broggio 22' for Stevenage, K. Doyle 66' for Leicester, Tugra Turhan 78' for Stevenage. On expected goals it finished 2.12–1.20.
How the call on Leicester v Stevenage has moved
First published on 17 Oct at 46% / 29% / 25% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 42% / 29% / 29%: the biggest move is Leicester's chance of winning, down 4 points.
- Leicester win42%▼ −4
- Draw29%=
- Stevenage win29%▲ +4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.