31 October 2026, 15:00 UTC

Tranmere vs Cheltenham League Two prediction & result

Prenton Park, Birkenhead
Referee: R. Martin
Full time3 – 1

Final score: Tranmere 3-1 Cheltenham.

Before kick-off the model made it 39% Tranmere, 26% draw, 35% Cheltenham — fair odds of 2.56, 3.85 and 2.86.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Tranmere at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Tranmere99%Draw1%Cheltenham0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

1'
⚽Charlie McCannassist: Jake Evans
⚽dylan jonesassist: Jacob Slater
23'
32'
Jake Evans
⚽dylan jones
39'
Jordan Turnbull
45+1'
⚽Charlie Jay Whitakerassist: Thomas Ince
45+3'
🔁Jordan Turnbullout: Nathan Smith
45'
Tom Conlon
60'
68'
🔁Jordan Shipleyout: George Nurse
68'
🔁Ryan Broomout: George Miller
78'
Jonathan Tomkinson
80'
🔁Andreas Weimannout: Jake Bickerstaff
🔁dylan jonesout: Lee O'Connor
89'

Match stats — Tranmere vs Cheltenham

41%Possession59%
17Shots10
9On target2
1Corners4
1.08xG0.58

Goals against chances

Tranmere3 from 1.08 xGmore than the chances were worth
Cheltenham1 from 0.58 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Tranmere 4-2-3-1
  • 1L. McGeeG
  • 2J. SeniorD
  • 16B. FaulknerD
  • 4J. TurnbullD
  • 3J. SlaterD
  • 6W. VaulksM
  • 11T. ConlonM
  • 29D. JonesM
  • 10T. InceM
  • 7Charlie Jay WhitakerM
  • 9J. IronsideF
Substitutes
  • 13C. Boyce-ClarkeG
  • 24David KamaraF
  • 30G. NevettD
  • 22L. O'ConnorD
  • 5N. SmithD
  • 20Charlie VeeversM
  • 44R. WatsonM
Coach: D. Clarke
Cheltenham 4-2-3-1
  • 23W. StanwayG
  • 3J. TomkinsonD
  • 25P. SweeneyD
  • 6J. WilsonD
  • 26J. ShipleyD
  • 17S. McWilliamsM
  • 7B. StevensonM
  • 19J. EvansM
  • 8C. McCannM
  • 14R. BroomM
  • 18A. WeimannF
Substitutes
  • 33F. WillcoxM
  • 21G. NurseD
  • 10G. MillerF
  • 31M. DialloG
  • 1J. DayG
  • 11J. BickerstaffF
  • 9K. OtchereF
Coach: S. Cotterill

Form going into Tranmere vs Cheltenham

Tranmere

League Two

  • D1-1away to Crawley Town24 October 2026
  • W1-0away to Northampton20 October 2026
  • L1-2Barnet17 October 2026

Cheltenham

League Two

  • W1-0Newport County24 October 2026
  • W4-2Fleetwood Town20 October 2026
  • L1-4away to Oldham17 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

League Two table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
15Tranmere154741918+119
9Cheltenham156362326-321

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Tranmere vs Cheltenham

  • 21 April 2026Cheltenham 1–3 TranmereLeague Two
  • 15 November 2025Tranmere 3–2 CheltenhamLeague Two
  • 28 March 2025Tranmere 2–0 CheltenhamLeague Two
  • 22 November 2024Cheltenham 1–0 TranmereLeague Two
  • 2 April 2021Cheltenham 4–0 TranmereLeague Two
  • 19 September 2020Tranmere 0–3 CheltenhamLeague Two

Leading scorers: Tranmere and Cheltenham

Tranmere

GoalsAssists

  • D. Jones50

Cheltenham

GoalsAssists

  • C. McCann91

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Tranmere beat Cheltenham 3–1. The model had made a win for Tranmere its most likely outcome, at 39%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Charlie McCann 1' for Cheltenham, dylan jones 23' for Tranmere, dylan jones 39' for Tranmere, Charlie Jay Whitaker 45+3' for Tranmere. On expected goals it finished 1.08–0.58.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Tranmere a 9.0% chance to finish in the bottom two: 6.6% after a win, 9.8% after a draw, 10.5% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 6.6%, 2.4 points lower than before the match.

For Cheltenham the question was the chance to finish in the top three, 7.9% going in: 9.5% after a win, 8.0% after a draw, 6.0% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 6.0%, 1.9 points lower than before the match.

Read from our League Two season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.