Leyton Orient vs Cambridge United League One prediction & result
Final score: Leyton Orient 3-0 Cambridge United.
Before kick-off the model made it 38% Leyton Orient, 28% draw, 34% Cambridge United — fair odds of 2.63, 3.57 and 2.94.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Leyton Orient at 38%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Leyton Orient vs Cambridge United
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1N. BaxterG
- 2F. StevensD
- 4R. Edmonds-GreenD
- 12A. GilchristD
- 19S. BonifaceD
- 8I. El MizouniM
- 20A. GilbertM
- 10A. ConnollyM
- 7O. O'NeillM
- 17A. DobraM
- 9J. KabiaF
- 14I. HaydenM
- 22Y. AkhamrichF
- 13Noah PhillipsG
- 18D. ScarlettF
- 5J. OlowuD
- 27T. SpringettF
- 25Charlie Gerard Richard WellensM
- 1J. EastwoodG
- 15Cathal Séan Heffernan AndrewsD
- 6K. WattsD
- 3Callum PerryD
- 2L. BennettM
- 38G. HoddleM
- 17P. MpanzuM
- 22Z. BradshawM
- 10B. KnightM
- 11S. KaikaiM
- 9L. AppéréF
- 44Raees Bangura-WilliamsM
- 5P. BauerD
- 29S. CurtisD
- 13G. BreezeG
- 7Isaac HeathF
- 19S. LaveryF
- 8O. MoxonM
Form going into Leyton Orient vs Cambridge United
Leyton Orient
League One
- L1-2away to Burton Albion24 October 2026
- L0-1away to Reading21 October 2026
- W2-0Blackpool17 October 2026
- D0-0away to Bradford10 October 2026
Cambridge United
League One
- D1-1away to Sheffield Wednesday27 October 2026
- L2-3Plymouth24 October 2026
- D2-2Wycombe20 October 2026
- W2-1away to Barnsley17 October 2026
What these results say
- Leyton Orient failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Leyton Orient had two goals or fewer.
- Cambridge United scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Cambridge United conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 4 matches for Cambridge United.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
League One table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Leyton Orient | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 19 | 14 | +5 | 17 |
| 10 | Cambridge United | 14 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 21 | 21 | 0 | 21 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Leyton Orient vs Cambridge United
- 21 April 2025Cambridge United 1–2 Leyton OrientLeague One
- 29 December 2024Leyton Orient 2–0 Cambridge UnitedLeague One
- 1 January 2024Cambridge United 0–2 Leyton OrientLeague One
- 26 August 2023Leyton Orient 2–0 Cambridge UnitedLeague One
- 20 April 2021Leyton Orient 2–4 Cambridge UnitedLeague Two
- 26 December 2020Cambridge United 2–1 Leyton OrientLeague Two
Leading scorers: Leyton Orient and Cambridge United
Leyton Orient
GoalsAssists
- J. Kabia42
Cambridge United
GoalsAssists
- B. Knight42
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Leyton Orient beat Cambridge United 3–0. The model had made a win for Leyton Orient its most likely outcome, at 38%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Rarmani Edmonds-Green 32' for Leyton Orient, Jaze Kabia 50' for Leyton Orient, Aaron Connolly 62' for Leyton Orient. On expected goals it finished 2.11–2.00.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Leyton Orient a 7.6% chance to finish in the bottom four: 5.9% after a win, 7.3% after a draw, 9.2% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 5.9%, 1.7 points lower than before the match.
Read from our League One season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Leyton Orient v Cambridge United has moved
First published on 17 Oct at 36% / 29% / 35% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 38% / 28% / 34%: the biggest move is Leyton Orient's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Leyton Orient win38%▲ +2
- Draw28%▼ −1
- Cambridge United win34%▼ −1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.