31 October 2026, 15:00 UTC

Mansfield Town vs Notts County League One prediction & result

One Call Stadium, Mansfield
Full time0 – 2

Final score: Mansfield Town 0-2 Notts County.

Before kick-off the model made it 48% Mansfield Town, 28% draw, 24% Notts County — fair odds of 2.08, 3.57 and 4.17.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Mansfield Town at 48%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Mansfield Town0%Draw1%Notts County99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

25'
🔁Conor·Grantout: Callum Roberts
29'
⚽Callum Robertsassist: Rory Finneran
55'
Rory Finneran
Jordan Bowery
56'
🔁Tyler Robertsout: Rhys Oates
56'
65'
⚽D. Kanu
71'
Luka Smyth
🔁Nathan Daniel Moriah-Welshout: Luke Bolton
73'
🔁Louis Reedout: George Maris
73'
74'
🔁Nicholas Tsaroullaout: Darius Lipsiuc
74'
🔁Rory Finneranout: Max Sanders
74'
🔁Luka Smythout: lee ndlovu
81'
🔁D. Kanuout: James Gibbons
82'
Callum Roberts
🔁Ryan Sweeneyout: Frazer Blake-Tracy
86'
🔁Jonathan Russellout: Elliott Hewitt
86'

Match stats — Mansfield Town vs Notts County

60%Possession40%
14Shots16
4On target5
9Corners3
1.61xG1.06

Goals against chances

Mansfield Town0 from 1.61 xGless than the chances were worth
Notts County2 from 1.06 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Mansfield Town 3-1-4-2
  • 1L. RobertsG
  • 9J. BoweryD
  • 23A. OshilajaD
  • 5R. SweeneyD
  • 25L. ReedM
  • 22N. Moriah-WelshM
  • 13J. RussellM
  • 24R. HendryM
  • 3S. McLaughlinM
  • 14M. SmithF
  • 19T. RobertsF
Substitutes
  • 18R. OatesF
  • 20F. Blake-TracyD
  • 8L. BoltonD
  • 39O. DodgsonD
  • 4E. HewittD
  • 2K. KnoyleD
  • 10G. MarisM
Coach: N. Clough
Notts County 3-4-1-2
  • 1J. GibbonsG
  • 12L. NessD
  • 3R. McDonaldD
  • 4J. BedeauD
  • 25N. TsaroullaM
  • 27R. FinneranM
  • 20S. RobertsonM
  • 26I. Samuels-SmithM
  • 11C. GrantM
  • 19L. SmythF
  • 9D. KanuF
Substitutes
  • 15J. EvansM
  • 2J. GibbonsD
  • 14D. LipsiucM
  • 42H. MustaphaM
  • 39L. NdlovuF
  • 7C. RobertsF
  • 6M. SandersM
Coach: M. Paterson

Form going into Mansfield Town vs Notts County

Mansfield Town

League One

  • W4-1away to Blackpool24 October 2026
  • W3-0away to AFC Wimbledon20 October 2026
  • D1-1Oxford United15 October 2026

Notts County

League One

  • D1-1Stockport County24 October 2026
  • W2-0Sheffield Wednesday20 October 2026
  • L0-2away to Wycombe17 October 2026
  • L1-2Oxford United10 October 2026

What these results say

  • Notts County failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Notts County scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Notts County conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

League One table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
12Mansfield Town135442018+219
18Notts County123541314-114

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Mansfield Town vs Notts County

  • 3 February 2024Mansfield Town 1–0 Notts CountyLeague Two
  • 14 October 2023Notts County 1–4 Mansfield TownLeague Two
  • 16 February 2019Notts County 1–0 Mansfield TownLeague Two
  • 8 December 2018Mansfield Town 2–0 Notts CountyLeague Two
  • 17 March 2018Notts County 1–1 Mansfield TownLeague Two
  • 24 October 2017Notts County 1–2 Mansfield TownEFL Trophy

Leading scorers: Mansfield Town and Notts County

Mansfield Town

GoalsAssists

  • M. Smith62

Notts County

No player in League One's leading scorers — 13 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Notts County won 2–0 at Mansfield Town. The model had leaned towards a win for Mansfield Town at 48% and given a win for Notts County 24%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Callum Roberts 29' for Notts County, D. Kanu 65' for Notts County. On expected goals it finished 1.61–1.06.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Mansfield Town a 15.8% chance to finish in the top two: 17.7% after a win, 14.3% after a draw, 11.9% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 11.9%, 3.9 points lower than before the match.

For Notts County the question was the chance to finish in the bottom four, 8.2% going in: 5.0% after a win, 8.3% after a draw, 8.9% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 5.0%, 3.2 points lower than before the match.

Read from our League One season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Mansfield Town v Notts County has moved

First published on 17 Oct at 46% / 28% / 26% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 48% / 28% / 24%: the biggest move is Mansfield Town's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. Mansfield Town win48%▲ +2
  2. Draw28%=
  3. Notts County win24%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.