Levski Sofia vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv First League prediction & result
Final score: Levski Sofia 2-0 Lokomotiv Plovdiv.
Before kick-off the model made it 85% Levski Sofia, 11% draw, 4% Lokomotiv Plovdiv — fair odds of 1.18, 9.09 and 25.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Levski Sofia at 85% here. Across 2488 settled matches, 276 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 60.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.5%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Line-ups
- 92Svetoslav VutsovG
- 50Kristian DimitrovD
- 20Álex CentellesD
- 2Hevertton SantosD
- 4Christian MakounD
- 10Asen Ivanov MitkovM
- 11Armstrong Oko-FlexM
- 22Mazire SoulaM
- 27David KussoM
- 19El Mehdi MoubarikM
- 9Juan PereaF
- 35SerginhoM
- 17Everton BalaM
- 18Gašper TrdinM
- 7ReinaldoF
- 21AldairD
- 78Martin LukovG
- 1Ognyan VladimirovG
- 31Nikola SerafimovD
- 77Adrian RaychevM
- 1Bojan MilosavljevićG
- 2Adrián CovaD
- 4Andrei ChindrişD
- 13Lucas RyanD
- 5Todor PavlovD
- 12Efe AliM
- 7Sevi IdrizM
- 94Cătălin ItuM
- 6Miha TrdanM
- 22Ivaylo IvanovM
- 9Axel VelevF
- 29Christ LongvilleF
- 3Dalil AliD
- 99Julien LamyM
- 40Petar ZovkoG
- 26Denis KirashkiD
- 44Milan PetrovicD
- 30Alexander AlexandrovM
- 10Yoan DzhelepovF
Form going into Levski Sofia vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Levski Sofia
- W1-0Kairat Almaty4 August 2026
- W3-0Septemvri Sofia1 August 2026
- D2-2away to Universitatea Craiova29 July 2026
- W2-1away to Lokomotiv Sofia25 July 2026
- W1-0Universitatea Craiova22 July 2026
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
- L0-1away to Spartak Varna3 August 2026
- W2-1Septemvri Sofia26 July 2026
- L0-1away to Ludogorets18 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Levski Sofia | 9 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 21 | 4 | +17 | 25 |
| 11 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 9 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 4 | 12 | -8 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Levski Sofia vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv
- 7 August 2026Levski Sofia 2–0 Lokomotiv PlovdivFirst League
- 9 March 2026Levski Sofia 1–0 Lokomotiv PlovdivFirst League
- 26 September 2025Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1–0 Levski SofiaFirst League
- 4 December 2024Levski Sofia 2–1 Lokomotiv PlovdivFirst League
- 2 August 2024Lokomotiv Plovdiv 0–2 Levski SofiaFirst League
- 18 May 2024Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1–2 Levski SofiaFirst League