8 August 2026, 18:15 UTC

Dunav Ruse vs Arda Kardzhali First League prediction & result

Gradski stadion, Ruse
Full time0 – 2

Final score: Dunav Ruse 0-2 Arda Kardzhali.

Before kick-off the model made it 30% Dunav Ruse, 20% draw, 50% Arda Kardzhali — fair odds of 3.33, 5.00 and 2.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Arda Kardzhali at 50% here. Across 2488 settled matches, 635 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Dunav Ruse0%Draw1%Arda Kardzhali99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

🔁Georgi Kitanovout: Plamen Pepelyashev
15'
16'
⚽Birsent Karagarenassist: Dominik Yankov
55'
Vyacheslav Velev
59'
⚽Svetoslav Kovachev
🔁Alexander Valino Navasalout: Ibrahim Keita
65'
🔁Vladan Vidakovićout: Stefan Gavrilov
65'
Jose Cabarcas
68'
69'
🔁Dominik Yankovout: Idowu David Akintola
69'
🔁Stanislav Ivanovout: Atanas Kabov
Kyriakos Antoniou
72'
Jose Cabarcas
79'
Jose Cabarcas
79'
81'
🔁Vyacheslav Velevout: Viktor Popov
81'
🔁Svetoslav Kovachevout: Simeon Vasilev
🔁Ilker Budinovout: Stojan Predev
85'
🔁Dimitar Todorovout: Andre Alves
85'
Stefan Gavrilov
88'

Line-ups

Dunav Ruse 4-2-3-1
  • 33Georgi KitanovG
  • 51Ilker BudinovD
  • 4Jose CabarcasD
  • 5Kyriakos AntoniouM
  • 88Dimitar TodorovD
  • 14Radoslav ApostolovM
  • 44Vladan VidakovićM
  • 2Mario Ivanov DilchovskiD
  • 10Kristiyan BoychevM
  • 11Denislav MinchevF
  • 9Alexander Valino NavasalF
Substitutes
  • 69Plamen PepelyashevG
  • 24Stefan GavrilovM
  • 18Ibrahim KeitaF
  • 39Andre AlvesD
  • 22Stojan PredevD
  • 6Stanislav YovkovD
  • 19Stefan StefanovM
  • 77Aleksandar SimeonovF
Coach: Emanuel Lukanov
Arda Kardzhali 4-2-3-1
  • 1Anatoli GospodinovG
  • 21Vyacheslav VelevD
  • 44Adama Ardile TraoréD
  • 5Viktor LyubenovD
  • 35Dimitar VelkovskiD
  • 80Lachezar KotevM
  • 8Dominik YankovM
  • 15Stanislav IvanovM
  • 10Svetoslav KovachevM
  • 99Birsent KaragarenM
  • 16Preslav BachevF
Substitutes
  • 4Idowu David AkintolaM
  • 11Atanas KabovM
  • 6Viktor PopovD
  • 18Simeon VasilevD
  • 22Yanko GeorgievG
  • 24Martin PaskalevD
  • 26Burak AkandzhaM
  • 9Georgi NikolovF
Coach: Blagov Tunchev Aleksander

Form going into Dunav Ruse vs Arda Kardzhali

Dunav Ruse

  • L1-2away to CSKA Sofia2 August 2026
  • L0-2Ludogorets27 July 2026
  • L1-2away to Levski Sofia17 July 2026

Arda Kardzhali

  • L1-2away to CSKA 194831 July 2026
  • W1-0Slavia Sofia24 July 2026
  • D1-1away to Septemvri Sofia18 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

First League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
14Dunav Ruse9117817-94
5Arda Kardzhali95131411+316

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Dunav Ruse vs Arda Kardzhali

  • 8 August 2026Dunav Ruse 0–2 Arda KardzhaliFirst League
  • 19 November 2022Dunav Ruse 1–2 Arda KardzhaliCup
  • 21 June 2020Arda Kardzhali 0–2 Dunav RuseFirst League
  • 6 June 2020Dunav Ruse 0–0 Arda KardzhaliFirst League
  • 6 October 2019Arda Kardzhali 0–2 Dunav RuseFirst League
Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.