7 August 2026, 18:00 UTC

Cambuur vs Excelsior Eredivisie prediction & result

Kooi Stadion, Leeuwarden
Full time0 – 4

Final score: Cambuur 0-4 Excelsior.

Before kick-off the model made it 38% Cambuur, 23% draw, 39% Excelsior — fair odds of 2.63, 4.35 and 2.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Excelsior at 39% here. Across 2488 settled matches, 1772 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Cambuur0%Draw1%Excelsior99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

17'
⚽I. Yegoianassist: G. de Regt
31'
⚽N. Naujoksassist: I. Yegoian
42'
⚽D. Gardenassist: S. Janssen
🔁R. Muldersout: M. Costarelli
46'
🔁R. van de Pavertout: S. Bouhoudane
46'
🔁L. Jettenout: E. Apkakou
66'
69'
⚽N. Naujoksassist: S. Janssen
74'
🔁N. Martensout: C. Widell
74'
🔁D. Gardenout: N. Groen
75'
🔁I. Yegoianout: A. Sliti
🔁S. Vinkout: W. van der Goot
81'
81'
🔁S. Janssenout: O. Turay
85'
🔁G. de Regtout: I. Silva Timas
90+4'
•Ilano Silva Timas

Match stats — Cambuur vs Excelsior

46%Possession54%
11Shots18
2On target9
5Corners8
0.7xG3.35

Goals against chances

Cambuur0 from 0.70 xGless than the chances were worth
Excelsior4 from 3.35 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Cambuur 4-3-3
  • 1T. JansenG
  • 16R. MuldersD
  • 4I. BaoufD
  • 6J. AmofaD
  • 23L. JettenD
  • 14R. van de PavertM
  • 10R. El ArguiouiM
  • 8N. SourenM
  • 29I. HenstraF
  • 9S. VinkF
  • 11I. HamacheF
Substitutes
  • 21J. MeijsterG
  • 24M. Kalisvaart
  • 28M. CostarelliD
  • 18W. van der HeideM
  • 33B. VogelzangD
  • 13N. BinderF
  • 3J. BerkhoutD
  • 15F. KvamF
  • 7S. BouhoudaneF
Coach: Johan Plat
Excelsior 4-3-3
  • 1S. van GasselG
  • 17N. MartensD
  • 3R. MeissenD
  • 14J. PlugD
  • 15S. JanssenD
  • 6D. van VianenM
  • 10N. NaujoksM
  • 20L. HartjesM
  • 8I. YegoianF
  • 19D. Garden
  • 11G. de RegtF
Substitutes
  • 16C. BiaiG
  • 4C. WidellD
  • 5S. HenderikxD
  • 7A. SlitiF
  • 28N. GroenF
  • 18V. SulzbacherM
  • 23Y. FineyM
  • 24G. CairoM
  • 22O. TurayD
Coach: Ruben den Uil

Eredivisie table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
15Cambuur6114918-94
6Excelsior6312137+610

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Cambuur vs Excelsior

  • 7 August 2026Cambuur 0–4 ExcelsiorEredivisie
  • 4 July 2026Excelsior 3–2 CambuurFriendlies Clubs
  • 2 August 2025Cambuur 0–1 ExcelsiorFriendlies Clubs
  • 17 January 2025Cambuur 1–0 ExcelsiorEerste Divisie
  • 26 October 2024Excelsior 0–1 CambuurEerste Divisie
  • 19 March 2023Excelsior 4–1 CambuurEredivisie

Leading scorers: Cambuur and Excelsior

Cambuur

  • R. El Arguioui4 goals
  • I. Hamache3 goals1 assists

Excelsior

  • D. Garden3 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.