31 October 2026, 15:00 UTC

Peterborough vs Luton League One prediction & result

Weston Homes Stadium, Peterborough
Full time0 – 2

Final score: Peterborough 0-2 Luton.

Before kick-off the model made it 31% Peterborough, 25% draw, 44% Luton — fair odds of 3.23, 4.00 and 2.27.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Luton at 44%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

3'
⚽Jordan Clarkassist: Kasey Palmer
Harry Ashfield
9'
43'
Jamie Donley
🔁Harry Ashfieldout: Matthew Garbett
45'
🔁Vernon Masaraout: Brandon·Singh Khela
45'
46'
⚽Liam Kelly (OG)
59'
🔁Callum Marshallout: Nahki Wells
59'
🔁Liam Walshout: Dan Gore
🔁Carl Johnstonout: Sam Hughes
66'
🔁Ethan Williamsout: D. Ormerod
66'
70'
🔁Jake Richardsout: Tudor Mendel-Idowu
🔁Harley Millsout: Declan Firth
72'
76'
Kasey Palmer
84'
🔁Isaiah Jonesout: Harrison Ashby
85'
🔁Kasey Palmerout: E. Lawrence

Match stats — Peterborough vs Luton

57%Possession43%
17Shots11
6On target4
4Corners6
1.02xG1.44

Goals against chances

Peterborough0 from 1.02 xGless than the chances were worth
Luton2 from 1.44 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Peterborough 4-2-3-1
  • 1A. BassG
  • 2C. JohnstonD
  • 18Lucca MendonçaD
  • 6T. O'ConnorD
  • 14Harley MillsD
  • 4L. KellyM
  • 45Harry AshfieldM
  • 19Bolu ShofowokeM
  • 10Ethan WilliamsM
  • 17Vernon MasaraM
  • 9H. LeonardF
Substitutes
  • 24Declan FirthF
  • 28M. GarbettM
  • 5S. HughesD
  • 8B. KhelaM
  • 3E. WeirD
  • 23C. Andeng NdiG
  • 27D. OrmerodF
Coach: Robert William Savage
Luton 4-1-4-1
  • 1J. SheaG
  • 25I. JonesD
  • 5M. AndersenD
  • 6G. JohnstonD
  • 12J. JohnsonD
  • 8L. WalshM
  • 7J. RichardsM
  • 10J. DonleyM
  • 18J. ClarkM
  • 45K. PalmerM
  • 9C. MarshallF
Substitutes
  • 16Daniel GoreM
  • 24Joshua KeeleyG
  • 17T. Mendel-IdowuF
  • 21N. WellsF
  • 33H. AshbyD
  • 11Emilio LawrenceF
  • 31B. BenagrD
Coach: J. Wilshere

Form going into Peterborough vs Luton

Peterborough

League One

  • D1-1away to Bromley24 October 2026
  • L1-4away to Huddersfield20 October 2026
  • D2-2Burton Albion17 October 2026
  • W3-1away to Leicester10 October 2026

Luton

League One

  • W3-1Doncaster27 October 2026
  • W2-1Leicester24 October 2026
  • W2-1Barnsley20 October 2026

What these results say

  • Peterborough scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Peterborough conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Both sides scored in every one of these 4 matches for Peterborough.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

League One table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
22Peterborough132471123-1210
4Luton147342721+624

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Peterborough vs Luton

  • 3 April 2026Luton 2–1 PeterboroughLeague One
  • 9 August 2025Peterborough 0–2 LutonLeague One
  • 20 July 2022Peterborough 0–2 LutonFriendlies Clubs
  • 5 April 2022Peterborough 1–1 LutonChampionship
  • 7 August 2021Luton 3–0 PeterboroughChampionship
  • 19 January 2019Luton 4–0 PeterboroughLeague One

Leading scorers: Peterborough and Luton

Peterborough

No player in League One's leading scorers — 11 league goals as a side.

Luton

GoalsAssists

  • N. Wells72
  • J. Donley43

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Luton won 2–0 at Peterborough. The model had made a win for Luton its most likely outcome, at 44%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Jordan Clark 3' for Luton, Liam Kelly (own goal) 46' for Luton. On expected goals it finished 1.02–1.44.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Peterborough a 38.6% chance to finish in the bottom four: 30.7% after a win, 39.0% after a draw, 42.9% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 42.9%, 4.3 points higher than before the match.

For Luton the question was the chance to finish in the top two, 15.4% going in: 17.6% after a win, 13.5% after a draw, 11.3% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 17.6%, 2.2 points higher than before the match.

Read from our League One season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Peterborough v Luton has moved

First published on 17 Oct at 32% / 26% / 42% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 31% / 25% / 44%: the biggest move is Luton's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. Peterborough win31%▼ −1
  2. Draw25%▼ −1
  3. Luton win44%▲ +2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.