Libertad Asuncion vs Club Guarani Division Profesional - Clausura prediction & result
Final score: Libertad Asuncion 2-2 Club Guarani.
Before kick-off the model made it 42% Libertad Asuncion, 29% draw, 29% Club Guarani — fair odds of 2.38, 3.45 and 3.45.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Paraguayan Primera División Clausura predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Libertad Asuncion at 42%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Libertad Asuncion vs Club Guarani
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 12R. MorínigoG
- 2A. BenítezD
- 3R. RojasD
- 5G. FloresD
- 4N. GiménezD
- 8F. CarrizoM
- 20H. FernándezM
- 21L. SanabriaM
- 19I. FrancoM
- 9G. AguilarF
- 11E. VeraF
- 13J. BogarínM
- 30O. AcuñaF
- 38J. Estigarribia MezaD
- 28M. FernándezF
- 31T. FernándezD
- 7A. ManzurM
- 33C. MartínezM
- 32L. NequecaurF
- 26I. RamirezF
- 31M. MartínezG
- 4A. MéndezD
- 2I. SegoviaD
- 15T. ServínD
- 33L. AllendeD
- 36L. MartínezM
- 34M. MaldonadoM
- 10M. AñascoM
- 25G. GómezM
- 17V. CéspedesM
- 9J. RecaldeF
- 12G. DionisiG
- 40F. FernándezF
- 26D. FernándezF
- 11J. GarcíaF
- 23M. JacquetD
- 29F. LlanoM
- 14R. RodríguezD
- 39C. RolónD
- 16Lucas Mario Romañach DoriaM
Form going into Libertad Asuncion vs Club Guarani
Libertad Asuncion
All competitions we cover
- W2-1away to Deportivo Recoleta3 October 2026
Club Guarani
All competitions we cover
- D1-1Club Sp. San Lorenzo3 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Division Profesional - Clausura table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Libertad Asuncion | 19 | 10 | 3 | 6 | 28 | 20 | +8 | 33 |
| 5 | Club Guarani | 19 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 21 | 17 | +4 | 31 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Libertad Asuncion vs Club Guarani
- 2 August 2026Club Guarani 2–1 Libertad AsuncionDivision Profesional - Clausura
- 5 April 2026Club Guarani 1–0 Libertad AsuncionDivision Profesional - Apertura
- 8 February 2026Libertad Asuncion 3–3 Club GuaraniDivision Profesional - Apertura
- 9 November 2025Club Guarani 1–2 Libertad AsuncionDivision Profesional - Clausura
- 1 October 2025Libertad Asuncion 2–2 Club GuaraniCopa Paraguay
Leading scorers: Libertad Asuncion and Club Guarani
Libertad Asuncion
GoalsAssists
- E. Vera162
Club Guarani
No player in Division Profesional - Clausura's leading scorers — 21 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Libertad Asuncion and Club Guarani drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Libertad Asuncion at 42% and given a draw 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Gustavo Aguilar 16' for Libertad Asuncion, Maximiliano Nahuel Añasco Dornells 21' for Club Guarani, Federico Carrizo (own goal) 56' for Club Guarani, Elvio de Jesús Vera Brítez (penalty) 77' for Libertad Asuncion. On expected goals it finished 2.47–1.54.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Libertad Asuncion a 78.7% chance to finish in the top four: 87.6% after a win, 76.8% after a draw, 67.1% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 76.8%, 1.9 points lower than before the match.
For Club Guarani the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 25.7% going in: 40.5% after a win, 23.8% after a draw, 16.2% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 23.8%, 1.9 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Division Profesional - Clausura season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Libertad Asuncion v Club Guarani has moved
First published on 2 Oct at 39% / 30% / 31% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 42% / 29% / 29%: the biggest move is Libertad Asuncion's chance of winning, up 3 points.
- Libertad Asuncion win42%▲ +3
- Draw29%▼ −1
- Club Guarani win29%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.