Sportivo Luqueno vs Cerro Porteno Division Profesional - Clausura prediction & result
Final score: Sportivo Luqueno 0-3 Cerro Porteno.
Before kick-off the model made it 32% Sportivo Luqueno, 27% draw, 41% Cerro Porteno — fair odds of 3.13, 3.70 and 2.44.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Paraguayan Primera División Clausura predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Cerro Porteno at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Sportivo Luqueno vs Cerro Porteno
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1N. CampisiG
- 22S. OcamposD
- 2M. BarretoD
- 6F. WiechniakD
- 23A. CanteroD
- 8A. MaízM
- 10G. BogadoM
- 14F. BenitezM
- 11Ó. RuízF
- 20I. MaggiF
- 25J. RamosF
- 30T. FrancoM
- 28A. BalbuenaD
- 3Á. BrizuelaD
- 9W. GonzálezF
- 12F. MongelosG
- 29T. MuroM
- 21M. OjedaM
- 7K. PereiraF
- 19M. PérezF
- 12A. MartínezG
- 2F. DomínguezD
- 4A. CañeteD
- 6L. MerollaD
- 15B. RiverosD
- 14L. QuintanaM
- 31I. AlisedaM
- 32C. BobadillaM
- 18A. GamarraM
- 7D. RodríguezM
- 19P. VegettiF
- 13G. BenítezD
- 34C. ChenaM
- 28C. FrancoF
- 30G. GiménezM
- 40M. KlimowiczM
- 5J. MorelM
- 16I. RamírezD
- 1M. RoffoG
- 27J. TorresF
Form going into Sportivo Luqueno vs Cerro Porteno
Sportivo Luqueno
All competitions we cover
- L2-3away to Sportivo Trinidense5 October 2026
Cerro Porteno
All competitions we cover
- L0-22 de Mayo5 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Division Profesional - Clausura table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Sportivo Luqueno | 19 | 7 | 1 | 11 | 25 | 33 | -8 | 22 |
| 7 | Cerro Porteno | 19 | 8 | 4 | 7 | 25 | 20 | +5 | 28 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Sportivo Luqueno vs Cerro Porteno
- 1 August 2026Cerro Porteno 3–0 Sportivo LuquenoDivision Profesional - Clausura
- 31 March 2026Sportivo Luqueno 2–3 Cerro PortenoDivision Profesional - Apertura
- 2 February 2026Cerro Porteno 2–0 Sportivo LuquenoDivision Profesional - Apertura
- 27 September 2025Sportivo Luqueno 0–1 Cerro PortenoDivision Profesional - Clausura
- 20 July 2025Cerro Porteno 0–0 Sportivo LuquenoDivision Profesional - Clausura
- 12 April 2025Cerro Porteno 0–0 Sportivo LuquenoDivision Profesional - Apertura
Leading scorers: Sportivo Luqueno and Cerro Porteno
Sportivo Luqueno
GoalsAssists
- I. Maggi52
Cerro Porteno
GoalsAssists
- P. Vegetti80
- J. Morel50
- D. Rodríguez45
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Cerro Porteno won 3–0 at Sportivo Luqueno. The model had made a win for Cerro Porteno its most likely outcome, at 41%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Pablo Vegetti 12' for Cerro Porteno, Lucas Merolla 28' for Cerro Porteno, Derlis Osmar Rodríguez Maciel 63' for Cerro Porteno. On expected goals it finished 0.98–2.74.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Sportivo Luqueno a 47.7% chance to finish in the bottom three: 34.5% after a win, 49.5% after a draw, 56.7% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 56.7%, 9 points higher than before the match.
For Cerro Porteno the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 6.1% going in: 9.3% after a win, 3.8% after a draw, 2.4% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 9.3%, 3.2 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Division Profesional - Clausura season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Sportivo Luqueno v Cerro Porteno has moved
First published on 2 Oct at 30% / 29% / 41% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 32% / 27% / 41%: the biggest move is Sportivo Luqueno's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Sportivo Luqueno win32%▲ +2
- Draw27%▼ −2
- Cerro Porteno win41%=
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.