11 October 2026, 20:00 UTC

Rubio NU vs Olimpia Division Profesional - Clausura prediction & result

Estadio La Arboleda, Asuncion
Referee: Derlis Benitez
Full time0 – 0

Final score: Rubio NU 0-0 Olimpia.

Before kick-off the model made it 26% Rubio NU, 24% draw, 50% Olimpia — fair odds of 3.85, 4.17 and 2.00.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Olimpia at 50%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Rubio NU4%Draw90%Olimpia6%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

🔁Rodi Ferreiraout: Maximiliano Garrone
5'
14'
Juan Vera
40'
🔁Eduardo Delmasout: Franco Alfonso
Víctor Ramón Cabañas
45+1'
🔁Octavio Alfonsoout: Rodrigo Rojas
56'
🔁Lucas Daniel Montiel Rodríguezout: Carlos Giménez
56'
65'
Franco Alfonso
72'
🔁Juan Fernando Alfaroout: Rodney Redes
72'
🔁Gabriel Ávalosout: Tiago Caballero
73'
🔁Raúl Alejandro Cáceres Bogadoout: Tim Payne
🔁Sergio Fretesout: Mariano Darío Ramos
80'
🔁Rodrigo Ruiz Díazout: Steven·Perez
80'
Tobías Leiva
90+6'

Match stats — Rubio NU vs Olimpia

35%Possession65%
9Shots29
1On target5
6Corners11
0.35xG1.98

Goals against chances

Rubio NU0 from 0.35 xGabout what the chances were worth
Olimpia0 from 1.98 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Rubio NU 4-2-3-1
  • 25F. FraguedaG
  • 13V. CabañasD
  • 3J. VallejosD
  • 5P. ÁlvarezD
  • 2R. FerreiraD
  • 23Tobías LeivaM
  • 15C. NúñezM
  • 26S. FretesM
  • 29O. AlfonsoM
  • 35L. MontielM
  • 9R. Ruiz DíazF
Substitutes
  • 16J. GonzálezD
  • 32L. MaldonadoG
  • 10W. MendietaM
  • 17Kevin ParedesF
  • 40Estiven Osmar Pérez YegrosF
  • 14M. RamosD
  • 8R. RojasM
  • 11M. RoldánF
  • 36C. GiménezD
Olimpia 4-1-3-2
  • 1G. OlveiraG
  • 27R. CáceresD
  • 22J. VeraD
  • 15M. GamarraD
  • 23E. MatusD
  • 6R. OrtizM
  • 7F. CardozoM
  • 5J. AlfaroM
  • 20E. DelmásM
  • 9G. ÁvalosF
  • 11S. FerreiraF
Substitutes
  • 30A. RodríguezD
  • 17R. RedesF
  • 18S. QuintanaM
  • 4T. PayneD
  • 12S. LentinellyG
  • 29I. LeguizamónM
  • 16J. DominguezM
  • 24T. CaballeroF
  • 35F. AlfonsoF
Coach: P. Sánchez

Form going into Rubio NU vs Olimpia

Rubio NU

All competitions we cover

  • W2-1away to Sportivo Ameliano6 October 2026

Olimpia

All competitions we cover

  • D1-1Nacional Asuncion6 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Division Profesional - Clausura table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
10Rubio NU1945102136-1517
1Olimpia1913333714+2342

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Rubio NU vs Olimpia

  • 2 August 2026Olimpia 5–0 Rubio NUDivision Profesional - Clausura
  • 12 April 2026Rubio NU 0–2 OlimpiaDivision Profesional - Apertura
  • 14 February 2026Olimpia 0–0 Rubio NUDivision Profesional - Apertura
  • 18 October 2017Rubio NU 0–0 OlimpiaDivision Profesional - Clausura
  • 6 August 2017Olimpia 3–0 Rubio NUDivision Profesional - Clausura

Leading scorers: Rubio NU and Olimpia

Rubio NU

GoalsAssists

  • R. Ruiz Díaz43

Olimpia

GoalsAssists

  • G. Ávalos83
  • A. Alcaraz71
  • R. Benitez43

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Rubio NU and Olimpia drew 0–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Olimpia at 50% and given a draw 24%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. On expected goals it finished 0.35–1.98.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Rubio NU a 48.2% chance to finish in the bottom three: 34.0% after a win, 47.9% after a draw, 54.4% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 47.9%.

For Olimpia the question was the chance to win the league, 44.0% going in: 53.5% after a win, 35.0% after a draw, 28.2% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 35.0%, 9 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Division Profesional - Clausura season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Rubio NU v Olimpia has moved

First published on 2 Oct at 27% / 26% / 47% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 26% / 24% / 50%: the biggest move is Olimpia's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. Rubio NU win26%▼ −1
  2. Draw24%▼ −2
  3. Olimpia win50%▲ +3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.