2 de Mayo vs Sportivo Ameliano Division Profesional - Clausura prediction & result
Final score: 2 de Mayo 1-0 Sportivo Ameliano.
Before kick-off the model made it 48% 2 de Mayo, 27% draw, 25% Sportivo Ameliano — fair odds of 2.08, 3.70 and 4.00.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
All Paraguayan Primera División Clausura predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
2 de Mayo at 48%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — 2 de Mayo vs Sportivo Ameliano
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1D. LerdaG
- 23A. EspínolaD
- 21P. SosaD
- 6C. RamírezD
- 19C. CastroD
- 16M. GómezM
- 27M. MoyaM
- 37L. DelgadilloM
- 30A. FariñaM
- 10A. GómezM
- 25A. CerveraF
- 7F. CáceresF
- 3A. VillalbaD
- 17P. DelvalleF
- 20E. DíazM
- 22T. PortilloF
- 32Mario RamírezG
- 24Ó. RomeroM
- 5C. SaizD
- 4Tobías Sanabria PanottoM
- 35Á. SánchezG
- 13R. PeraltaD
- 26J. GonzálezD
- 22L. FalabellaD
- 19A. ParedesD
- 15W. RodríguezM
- 7F. VeraM
- 20V. LarraldeM
- 10R. CabralM
- 14E. ToralesM
- 9C. OcamposF
- 24L. BentosM
- 1J. BalbuenaG
- 5H. BenítezD
- 6J. BenítezM
- 32G. CamargoM
- 40A. ContreraM
- 21F. FrancoD
- 25L. BrunoF
- 8E. MoreiraM
Form going into 2 de Mayo vs Sportivo Ameliano
2 de Mayo
All competitions we cover
- W2-0away to Cerro Porteno5 October 2026
Sportivo Ameliano
All competitions we cover
- L1-2Rubio NU6 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Division Profesional - Clausura table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 2 de Mayo | 19 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 18 | 21 | -3 | 30 |
| 9 | Sportivo Ameliano | 19 | 4 | 7 | 8 | 19 | 28 | -9 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: 2 de Mayo vs Sportivo Ameliano
- 1 August 2026Sportivo Ameliano 1–1 2 de MayoDivision Profesional - Clausura
- 10 April 20262 de Mayo 1–2 Sportivo AmelianoDivision Profesional - Apertura
- 14 February 2026Sportivo Ameliano 3–0 2 de MayoDivision Profesional - Apertura
- 10 November 2025Sportivo Ameliano 2–3 2 de MayoDivision Profesional - Clausura
- 23 August 20252 de Mayo 1–1 Sportivo AmelianoDivision Profesional - Clausura
Leading scorers: 2 de Mayo and Sportivo Ameliano
2 de Mayo
GoalsAssists
- D. Acosta51
Sportivo Ameliano
GoalsAssists
- C. Ocampos53
- R. Torales51
- E. Moreira50
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
2 de Mayo beat Sportivo Ameliano 1–0. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for 2 de Mayo at 48%. The goal: Alan Gómez 56' for 2 de Mayo. Sent off: A. Paredes (Sportivo Ameliano) 90+7'. On expected goals it finished 0.82–0.65.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave 2 de Mayo a 60.4% chance to finish in the top four: 70.3% after a win, 56.5% after a draw, 44.5% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 70.3%, 9.9 points higher than before the match.
For Sportivo Ameliano the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 5.3% going in: 10.9% after a win, 4.7% after a draw, 1.8% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 1.8%, 3.5 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Division Profesional - Clausura season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on 2 de Mayo v Sportivo Ameliano has moved
First published on 2 Oct at 41% / 29% / 30% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 48% / 27% / 25%: the biggest move is 2 de Mayo's chance of winning, up 7 points.
- 2 de Mayo win48%▲ +7
- Draw27%▼ −2
- Sportivo Ameliano win25%▼ −5
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.