3 October 2026, 14:00 UTC

Livingston vs Ayr Utd Championship prediction & result

The Home of the Set Fare Arena, Livingston
Referee: L. Hogarth
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Livingston 1-2 Ayr Utd.

Before kick-off the model made it 55% Livingston, 25% draw, 20% Ayr Utd — fair odds of 1.82, 4.00 and 5.00.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Livingston at 55%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Livingston0%Draw9%Ayr Utd91%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

8'
⚽O. Stirtonassist: R. Taylor
C. Palmer
10'
⚽R. Muirhead (pen)
19'
22'
R. Taylor
22'
L. McBeth
36'
⚽L. McBethassist: O. Stirton
J. Doherty
45'
🔁T. Sinclairout: G. Carey
46'
E. Danso
51'
🔁C. Palmerout: B. Anderson
62'
70'
🔁O. Stirtonout: K. Shanks
70'
🔁R. Lyonout: N. McAllister
72'
S. McMann
🔁E. Dansoout: S. May
76'
78'
K. Shanks
🔁S. Pittmanout: L. Polworth
80'
🔁B. van Hoevenout: A. Denholm
81'

Line-ups

Livingston 4-3-3
  • 28J. PriorG
  • 22J. DohertyD
  • 23Brooklyn KabongoloD
  • 5R. McGowanD
  • 26C. MontañoD
  • 8S. PittmanM
  • 20E. DansoM
  • 16C. PalmerM
  • 7T. SinclairF
  • 9R. MuirheadF
  • 19B. van HoevenF
Substitutes
  • 25B. AndersonF
  • 27G. CareyF
  • 30S. BlaneyD
  • 6A. DenholmM
  • 14J. HamiltonG
  • 2C. KerrD
  • 17S. MayF
  • 39L. PolworthM
  • 4J. WilkieD
Coach: G. Whelan
Ayr Utd 3-4-3
  • 1H. StoneG
  • 8L. KingD
  • 5K. HoltD
  • 3L. DickD
  • 32D. WatretM
  • 6R. LyonM
  • 20L. McBethM
  • 33S. McMannM
  • 12Olly WhyteF
  • 7O. StirtonF
  • 11R. TaylorF
Substitutes
  • 34J. DouglasM
  • 17Thomas HattonM
  • 9J. LandersF
  • 2N. McAllisterD
  • 25K. MitchellM
  • 38L. RussellG
  • 10K. ShanksF
  • 16B. SummersM
  • 21E. WalkerM
Coach: G. Naysmith

Scotland Championship table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5Livingston157352112+924
7Ayr Utd145361719-218

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Livingston vs Ayr Utd

  • 18 April 2025Livingston 5–0 Ayr UtdChampionship
  • 22 February 2025Ayr Utd 1–2 LivingstonChampionship
  • 21 December 2024Livingston 0–1 Ayr UtdChampionship
  • 19 October 2024Ayr Utd 1–2 LivingstonChampionship
  • 19 August 2023Livingston 2–0 Ayr UtdLeague Cup

The result against the call

Ayr Utd won 2–1 at Livingston. The model had leaned towards a win for Livingston at 55% and given a win for Ayr Utd 20%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. The goals: O. Stirton 8' for Ayr Utd, R. Muirhead (penalty) 19' for Livingston, L. McBeth 36' for Ayr Utd. Sent off: R. Taylor (Ayr Utd) 22'.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.