3 October 2026, 18:00 UTC

Waalwijk vs Emmen Eerste Divisie prediction & result

Mandemakers Stadion, Waalwijk
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Waalwijk 1-1 Emmen.

Before kick-off the model made it 51% Waalwijk, 26% draw, 23% Emmen — fair odds of 1.96, 3.85 and 4.35.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Waalwijk at 51%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Waalwijk6%Draw91%Emmen3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

6'
Joshua Mukeh
28'
Luca Everink
⚽Jesse van de Haarassist: Ryan fage
28'
44'
Torben Rhein
46'
🔁Torben Rheinout: Sybrand Veldhuis
46'
🔁Joshua Mukehout: Christian ostergaard
Jesse van de Haar
59'
61'
⚽Bryan Van Hoveassist: Daan Lambers
🔁Ryan fageout: Yoram van der Veen
62'
🔁Loek Postmaout: Tim van de Loo
75'
🔁Jesse van de Haarout: Finn Stokkers
75'
🔁Virgil Misidjanout: Keyan Anderson Pereira Varela
75'
75'
🔁Bryan Van Hoveout: Vincent Carus
76'
🔁Daan Lambersout: Chiel Sunder
🔁Bart Kemmerenout: R. van Hedel
82'
Finn Stokkers
84'
89'
Rodney Kongolo
90+1'
🔁Casper Staringout: Luca Denk

Match stats — Waalwijk vs Emmen

43%Possession57%
9Shots19
5On target4
2Corners8

Line-ups

Waalwijk 4-2-3-1
  • 16M. SpenkelinkG
  • 42B. KemmerenD
  • 3S. van der PlasD
  • 30J. de WijsD
  • 55N. HeldD
  • 8J. NapM
  • 6L. PostmaM
  • 7R. FageM
  • 10T. van LeeuwenM
  • 93V. MisidjanM
  • 9J. van de HaarF
Substitutes
  • 18R. van HedelM
  • 22T. van de LooM
  • 11Yorem van der VeenF
  • 24A. DkidakD
  • 17R. KuijpersF
  • 13Xander MulderG
  • 20Keyan VarelaF
  • 27F. StokkersF
  • 31L. VogelsG
Coach: Sander Duits
Emmen 3-4-1-2
  • 1S. KarssiesG
  • 2J. MukehD
  • 25R. KongoloD
  • 3Y. Dede-LhommeD
  • 24L. EverinkM
  • 6C. StaringM
  • 7T. RheinM
  • 17B. Van HoveM
  • 22M. BreijM
  • 23D. LambersF
  • 9J. CooperF
Substitutes
  • 18V. CarusD
  • 8L. DenkM
  • 4C. ØstergaardD
  • 5D. VouteF
  • 40S. VeldhuisF
  • 15C. SunderM
  • 38Kevin NorderG
  • 27J. HuijzerM
  • 21A. HojabrpourM
Coach: M. van Dam

Eerste Divisie table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
9Waalwijk154832720+720
6Emmen158162830-225

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Waalwijk vs Emmen

  • 10 April 2026Waalwijk 5–0 EmmenEerste Divisie
  • 2 November 2025Emmen 2–2 WaalwijkEerste Divisie
  • 28 January 2023Waalwijk 2–0 EmmenEredivisie
  • 13 August 2022Emmen 1–1 WaalwijkEredivisie
  • 4 April 2021Emmen 3–1 WaalwijkEredivisie

Leading scorers: Waalwijk and Emmen

Waalwijk

No player in Eerste Divisie's leading scorers — 27 league goals as a side.

Emmen

GoalsAssists

  • J. Cooper113
  • F. Quispel72

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Waalwijk and Emmen drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Waalwijk at 51% and given a draw 26%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Jesse van de Haar 28' for Waalwijk, Bryan Van Hove 61' for Emmen.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.