Livingston vs Partick Championship prediction & result
Final score: Livingston 1-2 Partick.
Before kick-off the model made it 40% Livingston, 27% draw, 33% Partick — fair odds of 2.50, 3.70 and 3.03.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Scottish Championship predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Livingston at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Form going into Livingston vs Partick
Livingston
All competitions we cover
- L1-2Ayr Utd3 October 2026
Partick
All competitions we cover
- W3-0Arbroath3 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Scotland Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Livingston | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 21 | 12 | +9 | 24 |
| 1 | Partick | 15 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 21 | 9 | +12 | 31 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Livingston vs Partick
- 7 August 2026Partick 2–0 LivingstonChampionship
- 18 July 2026Livingston 1–1 PartickLeague Cup
- 16 May 2025Livingston 2–0 PartickPremiership
- 13 May 2025Partick 0–2 LivingstonPremiership
- 2 May 2025Livingston 0–1 PartickChampionship
- 28 February 2025Partick 1–1 LivingstonChampionship
The result against the call
Partick won 2–1 at Livingston. The model had leaned towards a win for Livingston at 40% and given a win for Partick 33%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: P. Reading 17' for Partick, B. van Hoeven 44' for Livingston, T. Watt 62' for Partick.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Livingston a 45.5% chance to finish in the top four: 51.3% after a win, 43.1% after a draw, 39.3% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 39.3%, 6.2 points lower than before the match.
For Partick the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 71.2% going in: 76.8% after a win, 72.2% after a draw, 67.0% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 76.8%, 5.6 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Championship season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Livingston v Partick has moved
First published on 2 Oct at 38% / 29% / 33% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 40% / 27% / 33%: the biggest move is Livingston's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Livingston win40%▲ +2
- Draw27%▼ −2
- Partick win33%=
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.