10 October 2026, 14:00 UTC

Ayr Utd vs Dunfermline Championship prediction & result

Somerset Park, Ayr
Referee: D. McFarlane
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Ayr Utd 1-1 Dunfermline.

Before kick-off the model made it 27% Ayr Utd, 27% draw, 46% Dunfermline — fair odds of 3.70, 3.70 and 2.17.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Dunfermline at 46%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Ayr Utd3%Draw92%Dunfermline5%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

39'
A. Amade
54'
⚽J. Cooper (pen)
⚽K. Holtassist: O. Whyte
58'
58'
O. Adams
R. Lyon
62'
63'
🔁O. Adamsout: O. Shaw
🔁N. McAllisterout: B. Summers
66'
🔁O. Stirtonout: J. Landers
77'
🔁R. Lyonout: M. Rus
78'
🔁E. Walkerout: J. Murphy
78'
78'
🔁A. Todout: C. Morrison
78'
🔁A. Oyirwothout: K. Bray
O. Whyte
82'
83'
O. Shaw
90+2'
D. Lobban

Form going into Ayr Utd vs Dunfermline

Ayr Utd

All competitions we cover

  • W2-1away to Livingston3 October 2026

Dunfermline

No earlier matches on record this season.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Scotland Championship table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
7Ayr Utd145361719-218
4Dunfermline14671157+825

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Ayr Utd vs Dunfermline

  • 8 August 2026Dunfermline 1–1 Ayr UtdChampionship
  • 7 April 2026Ayr Utd 0–3 DunfermlineChampionship
  • 20 December 2025Dunfermline 2–3 Ayr UtdChampionship
  • 31 October 2025Ayr Utd 0–1 DunfermlineChampionship
  • 23 September 2025Dunfermline 0–1 Ayr UtdChampionship
  • 29 March 2025Ayr Utd 3–0 DunfermlineChampionship

The result against the call

Ayr Utd and Dunfermline drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Dunfermline at 46% and given a draw 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: J. Cooper (penalty) 54' for Dunfermline, K. Holt 58' for Ayr Utd.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Ayr Utd a 60.3% chance to finish in the bottom three: 53.1% after a win, 59.8% after a draw, 64.1% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 59.8%, 0.5 points lower than before the match.

For Dunfermline the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 74.1% going in: 78.8% after a win, 71.4% after a draw, 68.7% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 71.4%, 2.7 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Championship season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Ayr Utd v Dunfermline has moved

First published on 2 Oct at 27% / 29% / 44% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 27% / 27% / 46%: the biggest move is Dunfermline's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. Ayr Utd win27%=
  2. Draw27%▼ −2
  3. Dunfermline win46%▲ +2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.