Inverness CT vs Stenhousemuir Championship prediction & result
Final score: Inverness CT 2-0 Stenhousemuir.
Before kick-off the model made it 29% Inverness CT, 29% draw, 42% Stenhousemuir — fair odds of 3.45, 3.45 and 2.38.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Stenhousemuir at 42%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Scotland Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Inverness CT | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 20 | 20 | 0 | 20 |
| 2 | Stenhousemuir | 15 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 18 | 16 | +2 | 26 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Inverness CT vs Stenhousemuir
- 29 August 2026Stenhousemuir 3–1 Inverness CTChampionship
- 11 April 2026Stenhousemuir 1–1 Inverness CTLeague One
- 21 February 2026Inverness CT 1–1 StenhousemuirLeague One
- 27 January 2026Inverness CT 1–0 StenhousemuirChallenge Cup
- 20 December 2025Stenhousemuir 1–0 Inverness CTLeague One
- 16 August 2025Inverness CT 1–2 StenhousemuirLeague One
The result against the call
Inverness CT beat Stenhousemuir 2–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Stenhousemuir at 42% and given a win for Inverness CT 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: A. Mackinnon 26' for Inverness CT, C. MacLeod 35' for Inverness CT.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Inverness CT a 25.4% chance to finish in the bottom three: 20.0% after a win, 23.9% after a draw, 28.5% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 20.0%, 5.4 points lower than before the match.
For Stenhousemuir the question was the chance to finish top of the regular season, 61.5% going in: 67.9% after a win, 58.5% after a draw, 55.2% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 55.2%, 6.3 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Championship season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Inverness CT v Stenhousemuir has moved
First published on 2 Oct at 30% / 30% / 40% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 29% / 29% / 42%: the biggest move is Stenhousemuir's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Inverness CT win29%▼ −1
- Draw29%▼ −1
- Stenhousemuir win42%▲ +2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.