10 October 2026, 14:00 UTC

Arbroath vs Morton Championship prediction & result

Gayfield Park, Arbroath
Referee: C. Stirling
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Arbroath 1-2 Morton.

Before kick-off the model made it 73% Arbroath, 17% draw, 10% Morton — fair odds of 1.37, 5.88 and 10.00.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Arbroath at 73%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

S. Constable
9'
10'
⚽G. Gillespie (pen)
28'
C. Cupps
31'
🔁K. Robertsonout: P. Croker
50'
⚽C. Dewar (OG)
⚽J. MacIntyreassist: M. McKenna
52'
M. McKenna
54'
56'
P. Croker
🔁S. Mackieout: B. Paterson
57'
🔁G. Reillyout: A. Winter
63'
🔁C. Dewarout: C. Daly
63'
69'
🔁D. Borsoout: S. Bashir
74'
I. Wilson
88'
🔁C. Sandilandsout: H. Cochrane
88'
🔁M. Garrityout: J. Gorman

Form going into Arbroath vs Morton

Arbroath

All competitions we cover

  • L0-3away to Partick3 October 2026

Morton

All competitions we cover

  • L1-2Raith Rovers3 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Scotland Championship table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
8Arbroath144281123-1214
9Morton144191625-913

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Arbroath vs Morton

  • 22 August 2026Morton 1–2 ArbroathChampionship
  • 28 March 2026Morton 2–1 ArbroathChampionship
  • 23 January 2026Arbroath 1–1 MortonChampionship
  • 8 November 2025Morton 1–0 ArbroathChampionship
  • 20 September 2025Arbroath 1–1 MortonChampionship
  • 20 April 2024Arbroath 1–2 MortonChampionship

The result against the call

Morton won 2–1 at Arbroath. The model had leaned towards a win for Arbroath at 73% and given a win for Morton 10%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 10 matches like this one. The goals: G. Gillespie (penalty) 10' for Morton, C. Dewar (own goal) 50' for Morton, J. MacIntyre 52' for Arbroath. Sent off: S. Constable (Arbroath) 9', C. Cupps (Morton) 28'.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Arbroath a 47.5% chance to finish in the top four: 49.3% after a win, 38.4% after a draw, 41.8% after a defeat. The defeat was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 41.8%, 5.7 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Championship season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Arbroath v Morton has moved

First published on 2 Oct at 65% / 21% / 14% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 73% / 17% / 10%: the biggest move is Arbroath's chance of winning, up 8 points.

  1. Arbroath win73%▲ +8
  2. Draw17%▼ −4
  3. Morton win10%▼ −4

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.