Livyi Bereh
vs
Bukovyna
Premier League prediction & result
Final score: Livyi Bereh 0-3 Bukovyna.
Before kick-off the model made it 35% Livyi Bereh, 31% draw, 34% Bukovyna — fair odds of 2.86, 3.23 and 2.94.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Livyi Bereh 1.07, Bukovyna 1.05.
Both teams to score: 44%. Over 2.5 goals: 36%, under 2.5: 64%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
More Ukrainian Premier League predictions
Model insights: Livyi Bereh vs Bukovyna
Has the model earned this number?
Livyi Bereh at 35%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Livyi Bereh vs Bukovyna
Line-ups
- 12R. ZhmurkoG
- 2O. SokolovD
- 97A. YakymivD
- 13I. KovalenkoD
- 6Sidney Silva SantosD
- 25Sergii KosovskyiM
- 17N. VorobchakM
- 8O. KryvoruchkoM
- 15V. VoloshynM
- 9WendellM
- 20P. FallF
- 74D. IgnatenkoG
- 37roman gereshF
- 11I. KvasnytsyaM
- 7D. ShastalM
- 10Diego Henrique Souza Da SilvaM
- 38A. ChelyadinM
- 3I. KotukhaD
- 4V. BondarenkoD
- 14S. TatolnaD
- 94H. PenkovG
- 97O. IlyinD
- 5V. PryymakD
- 3M. BezuglyiD
- 95P. StasyukD
- 44V. VitenchukM
- 18E. OdinakaM
- 25V. GrushaM
- 6V. TankovskyiM
- 11V. DakhnovskyiM
- 7O. KozhushkoF
- 4T. SakivD
- 12Y. PidlepenetsM
- 17F. BabakM
- 20M. ZaderakaM
- 70M. GayeM
- 77M. KlepačF
- 10B. BoychukF
- 69E. RomanetsD
- 30Danylo KanevtsevG
Form going into Livyi Bereh vs Bukovyna
Livyi Bereh
Premier League
- D1-1away to Obolon'-Brovar6 November 2026
- D0-0LNZ Cherkasy24 October 2026
- L1-2away to FC Kharkiv19 October 2026
- L1-3Zorya Luhansk12 October 2026
Bukovyna
Premier League
- D1-1Kolos Kovalivka8 November 2026
- D0-0Kryvbas KR25 October 2026
- L1-4away to Kudrivka17 October 2026
- D2-2Polessya11 October 2026
What these results say
- Livyi Bereh did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Livyi Bereh scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Livyi Bereh conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Bukovyna did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Bukovyna scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Bukovyna conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ukraine Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Livyi Bereh | 11 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 12 | -5 | 9 |
| 8 | Bukovyna | 12 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 11 | 13 | -2 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Livyi Bereh vs Bukovyna
- 8 April 2026Bukovyna 2–1 Livyi BerehPersha Liga
- 22 September 2025Livyi Bereh 1–3 BukovynaPersha Liga
- 10 October 2021Bukovyna 1–3 Livyi BerehDruha Liga - Group A
Written before kick-off and left as it stood — the reading below is the model's pre-match case, not a view formed after the result.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Bukovyna (8th, with Livyi Bereh 12th), while our numbers lean to Livyi Bereh. Livyi Bereh rate 0.44 in attack and 1.56 in defence, Bukovyna 0.56 and 1.50 (lower is better in defence): close enough that playing at home is what tips the call.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Livyi Bereh a 18.7% chance to finish in the bottom four: 13.1% after a win, 21.2% after a draw, 26.5% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 26.5%, 7.8 points higher than before the match.
For Bukovyna the question was the chance to finish in the bottom four, 41.0% going in: 28.5% after a win, 39.1% after a draw, 47.2% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 28.5%, 12.5 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Premier League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Livyi Bereh the highest probability at 35%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Livyi Bereh against 1.05 for Bukovyna. Livyi Bereh's attack/defence rating is 0.44/1.56 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.56/1.5 for Bukovyna.
How the model reaches 35% for Livyi Bereh to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Livyi Bereh to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides takes away 3 points, Livyi Bereh's ratings take away 4 points and Bukovyna's ratings take away 2 points, which lands on the published 35%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Both sides at this match's level41%−3
- Livyi Bereh's ratings37%−4
- Bukovyna's ratings35%−2
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.