Almeria
vs
FC Andorra
Segunda División prediction & result
Final score: Almeria 2-1 FC Andorra.
Before kick-off the model made it 57% Almeria, 23% draw, 20% FC Andorra — fair odds of 1.75, 4.35 and 5.00.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (10%).
Expected goals: Almeria 2.22, FC Andorra 1.10.
Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 65%, under 2.5: 35%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
More Segunda División predictions
Model insights: Almeria vs FC Andorra
Has the model earned this number?
Almeria at 57%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Almeria vs FC Andorra
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Andrés FernándezG
- 21ChumiD
- 5Jorge PulidoD
- 18F. BoniniD
- 15Leonardo LeloD
- 6Mikel VesgaM
- 14Javi MuñozM
- 23Adri EmbarbaM
- 11Sergio ArribasM
- 33Quim JunyentM
- 24Miguel de la FuenteF
- 31Á. YaakobishviliG
- 9ThalysF
- 22D. ChirinoD
- 12Léo BaptistãoF
- 8GuiM
- 13Fernando MartínezG
- 7Jon MorcilloF
- 3Álex MuñozD
- 32A. PopovD
- 13Pau LópezG
- 17T. CarriqueD
- 5Marc BombardóD
- 23Diego AlendeD
- 10Marc DomènechD
- 14Sergio MolinaM
- 16R. SchneiderM
- 22D. DiazM
- 19Nacho QuintanaM
- 21Moró SidibeM
- 15Jordi CanoF
- 28T. OlmedoM
- 18Andoni LópezD
- 29Hugo LópezF
- 27S. GolubovicF
- 7Álex CalvoF
- 1N. RattiG
- 9Julian Dean RijkhoffF
- 12E. SaliF
- 2Juan SerranoD
Form going into Almeria vs FC Andorra
Almeria
Segunda División
- W1-0away to Girona8 November 2026
- D1-1away to Eibar31 October 2026
- D2-2Oviedo24 October 2026
- W4-2away to Real Sociedad II17 October 2026
FC Andorra
Segunda División
- D2-2away to Tenerife2 November 2026
- L2-3Burgos26 October 2026
- L0-2away to Girona18 October 2026
- W1-0Castellón11 October 2026
What these results say
- Almeria went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Almeria scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Almeria conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- FC Andorra failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- FC Andorra scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- FC Andorra conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Almeria | 14 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 26 | 11 | +15 | 32 |
| 19 | FC Andorra | 13 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 18 | 24 | -6 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Almeria vs FC Andorra
- 13 February 2026Almeria 3–2 FC AndorraSegunda División
- 6 December 2025FC Andorra 1–2 AlmeriaSegunda División
Leading scorers: Almeria and FC Andorra
Almeria
GoalsAssists
- Miguel de la Fuente91
FC Andorra
GoalsAssists
- Jordi Cano52
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Written before kick-off and left as it stood — the reading below is the model's pre-match case, not a view formed after the result.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Almeria a 30.3% chance of the title and FC Andorra 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Almeria a 58.1% chance to finish in the top two: 61.8% after a win, 53.5% after a draw, 49.5% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 61.8%, 3.7 points higher than before the match.
For FC Andorra the question was the chance to finish in the bottom four, 17.7% going in: 14.1% after a win, 15.9% after a draw, 19.0% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 19.0%, 1.3 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Segunda División season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Almeria the highest probability at 57%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.22 expected goals for Almeria against 1.10 for FC Andorra. Almeria's attack/defence rating is 0.92/1.19 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.77/1.56 for FC Andorra.
How the model reaches 57% for Almeria to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Almeria to win. Then home advantage adds 7 points, the level of the two sides adds 1 point, Almeria's ratings add 6 points and FC Andorra's ratings add 7 points, which lands on the published 57%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage43%+7
- Both sides at this match's level44%+1
- Almeria's ratings50%+6
- FC Andorra's ratings57%+7
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.