Portugal
vs
Denmark
UEFA Nations League prediction & result
Final score: Portugal 1-4 Denmark.
Before kick-off the model made it 45% Portugal, 27% draw, 28% Denmark — fair odds of 2.22, 3.70 and 3.57.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Portugal 1.59, Denmark 1.15.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
More Nations League predictions
Model insights: Portugal vs Denmark
Has the model earned this number?
Portugal at 45%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Portugal vs Denmark
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Diogo CostaG
- 20Alberto BaioD
- 3Rúben DiasD
- 13Renato VeigaD
- 2Diogo DalotD
- 21Rúben NevesM
- 23VitinhaM
- 17Pedro NetoM
- 11João FélixM
- 8Bruno FernandesM
- 9Gonçalo RamosF
- 19Rodrigo MoraM
- 7Carlos ForbsF
- 5Flávio NazinhoD
- 15João NevesM
- 6João PalhinhaM
- 14Geovany Tcherno QuendaM
- 4António SilvaD
- 10Bernardo SilvaM
- 18Fábio SilvaF
- 16M. HermansenG
- 18A. BahD
- 2J. AndersenD
- 3O. ProvstgaardD
- 5J. MæhleD
- 21M. HjulmandM
- 23P. HøjbjergM
- 8G. IsaksenM
- 14M. DamsgaardM
- 19M. DaramyM
- 9R. HøjlundF
- 11A. Skov OlsenM
- 10W. OsulaF
- 4R. NicolaisenD
- 6V. NelssonD
- 17J. LindstrømM
- 13R. KristensenD
- 1A. JungdalG
- 22F. JörgensenG
- 7M. JensenM
Form going into Portugal vs Denmark
Portugal
UEFA Nations League
- W2-1Norway4 October 2026
- W4-2away to Denmark1 October 2026
- W2-1away to Norway27 September 2026
- W1-0Wales24 September 2026
Denmark
UEFA Nations League
- W1-0away to Wales4 October 2026
- L2-4Portugal1 October 2026
- W2-0Wales27 September 2026
- L2-3away to Norway24 September 2026
What these results say
- Portugal won every one of these 4 matches.
- Portugal scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Portugal conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Denmark scored in every one of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Nations League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Portugal | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 12 |
| 2 | Denmark | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 8 | +3 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Portugal vs Denmark
- 1 October 2026Denmark 2–4 PortugalUEFA Nations League
- 23 March 2025Portugal 5–2 DenmarkUEFA Nations League
- 20 March 2025Denmark 1–0 PortugalUEFA Nations League
- 13 June 2012Denmark 2–3 PortugalEuro Championship
Leading scorers: Portugal and Denmark
Portugal
GoalsAssists
- João Félix31
- Gonçalo Ramos31
Denmark
GoalsAssists
- R. Højlund50
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Denmark won 4–1 at Portugal. The goals: Pierre-Emile Højbjerg (penalty) 43' for Denmark, Rasmus Hojlund 49' for Denmark, Rasmus Hojlund 57' for Denmark, Joachim Andersen 75' for Denmark, Bernardo Silva 90+3' for Portugal. On expected goals it finished 1.28–2.29.
How the call on Portugal v Denmark has moved
First published on 31 Oct at 42% / 27% / 31% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 45% / 27% / 28%: the biggest move is Portugal's chance of winning, up 3 points.
- Portugal win45%▲ +3
- Draw27%=
- Denmark win28%▼ −3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Portugal the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Portugal against 1.15 for Denmark. Portugal's attack/defence rating is 1.53/0.7 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.31/0.77 for Denmark.
How national teams are rated. National-team ratings are anchored on the FIFA World Ranking, because these groups never play each other and nothing inside the results can compare them. The constants behind that anchor are declared, not fitted, and not yet calibrated: too few national-team matches have been settled to test them — so this prediction rests on less evidence than our club predictions. How the model works.
How the model reaches 45% for Portugal to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Portugal to win. Then home advantage adds 2 points, Portugal's ratings add 3 points and Denmark's ratings add 4 points, which lands on the published 45%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage38%+2
- Portugal's ratings41%+3
- Denmark's ratings45%+4
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent internationals, friendlies included, before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.