Austria
vs
Rep. Of Ireland
UEFA Nations League prediction & result
Final score: Austria 1-0 Rep. Of Ireland.
Before kick-off the model made it 38% Austria, 29% draw, 33% Rep. Of Ireland — fair odds of 2.63, 3.45 and 3.03.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Austria 1.31, Rep. Of Ireland 1.19.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 45%, under 2.5: 55%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
More Nations League predictions
Model insights: Austria vs Rep. Of Ireland
Has the model earned this number?
Austria at 38%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Austria vs Rep. Of Ireland
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1A. SchlagerG
- 5S. PoschD
- 15P. LienhartD
- 3K. DansoD
- 16P. MweneD
- 20K. LaimerM
- 6N. SeiwaldM
- 18R. SchmidM
- 10C. BaumgartnerM
- 7C. LangM
- 11M. GregoritschF
- 2D. AffengruberD
- 8J. AdamuF
- 14F. BacherD
- 17Y. DemirF
- 19R. FloruczF
- 21S. HorvathM
- 13L. JungwirthG
- 9S. KalajdzicF
- 4Y. SpaltD
- 1C. KelleherG
- 4D. O'SheaD
- 22N. CollinsD
- 3L. ScalesD
- 2J. AbankwahM
- 17J. MoylanM
- 6J. MolumbyM
- 11F. AzazM
- 18R. ManningM
- 7T. ParrottF
- 10A. IdahF
- 13R. VataF
- 19H. ValeM
- 23M. TraversG
- 20C. OgbeneF
- 16M. O’LearyG
- 5J. O'BrienD
- 21B. LawalD
- 8J. KnightM
- 12L. KitchingD
Form going into Austria vs Rep. Of Ireland
Austria
UEFA Nations League
- D1-1away to Kosovo4 October 2026
- D2-2away to Rep. Of Ireland1 October 2026
- W3-1Kosovo27 September 2026
- W3-1Israel24 September 2026
Rep. Of Ireland
UEFA Nations League
- D1-1Israel4 October 2026
- D2-2Austria1 October 2026
- W3-0away to Israel27 September 2026
- L0-1away to Kosovo24 September 2026
What these results say
- Austria went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Austria scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Austria conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Rep. Of Ireland failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Rep. Of Ireland scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Rep. Of Ireland conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Nations League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Austria | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 5 | +5 | 11 |
| 3 | Rep. Of Ireland | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Austria vs Rep. Of Ireland
- 1 October 2026Rep. Of Ireland 2–2 AustriaUEFA Nations League
- 11 June 2017Rep. Of Ireland 1–1 AustriaWorld Cup - Qualification Europe
- 12 November 2016Austria 0–1 Rep. Of IrelandWorld Cup - Qualification Europe
Leading scorers: Austria and Rep. Of Ireland
Austria
No player in UEFA Nations League's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.
Rep. Of Ireland
GoalsAssists
- T. Parrott40
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Austria beat Rep. Of Ireland 1–0. The goal: Sasa Kalajdzic 78' for Austria. On expected goals it finished 2.23–1.15.
How the call on Austria v Rep. Of Ireland has moved
First published on 31 Oct at 33% / 29% / 38% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 38% / 29% / 33%: the biggest move is Austria's chance of winning, up 5 points.
- Austria win38%▲ +5
- Draw29%=
- Rep. Of Ireland win33%▼ −5
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Austria the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Austria against 1.19 for Rep. Of Ireland. Austria's attack/defence rating is 1.21/0.93 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.02/0.8 for Rep. Of Ireland.
How national teams are rated. National-team ratings are anchored on the FIFA World Ranking, because these groups never play each other and nothing inside the results can compare them. The constants behind that anchor are declared, not fitted, and not yet calibrated: too few national-team matches have been settled to test them — so this prediction rests on less evidence than our club predictions. How the model works.
How the model reaches 38% for Austria to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Austria to win. Then home advantage adds 2 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Austria's ratings add 1 point and Rep. Of Ireland's ratings change nothing, which lands on the published 38%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage38%+2
- Both sides at this match's level37%−1
- Austria's ratings38%+1
- Rep. Of Ireland's ratings38%±0
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent internationals, friendlies included, before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.