12 October 2026, 19:00 UTC

Coventry vs Newcastle Premier League prediction & result

Coventry Building Society Arena, Coventry
Referee: John Brooks
Full time4 – 1

Final score: Coventry 4-1 Newcastle.

Before kick-off the model made it 26% Coventry, 27% draw, 47% Newcastle — fair odds of 3.85, 3.70 and 2.13.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Newcastle at 47%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Coventry99%Draw1%Newcastle0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Jack Rudoni (pen)
6'
⚽Sidiki Cherif
48'
59'
🔁Lewis Mileyout: Amar Dedić
59'
🔁Jacob Murphyout: Bazoumana Touré
59'
🔁Joe Willockout: Joelinton
🔁Ephron Mason-Clarkout: Tatsuhiro Sakamoto
61'
Milan van Ewijk
66'
70'
⚽Sven Botmanassist: Nico González
🔁Caleb Yirenkyiout: Frank Onyeka
78'
🔁Sidiki Cherifout: Ellis Simms
78'
78'
🔁Yoane Wissaout: William Osula
⚽Ellis Simmsassist: Brandon Thomas-Asante
81'
81'
Joelinton
🔁Jack Rudoniout: Victor Torp
83'
🔁Matt Grimesout: Stephen Mfuni
83'
⚽Stephen Mfuniassist: Jay Dasilva
86'
90'
🔁Bazoumana Touréout: Dan Burn

Match stats — Coventry vs Newcastle

33%Possession67%
9Shots19
6On target6
2Corners6
1.47xG1.87

Goals against chances

Coventry4 from 1.47 xGmore than the chances were worth
Newcastle1 from 1.87 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Coventry 4-2-3-1
  • 19C. RushworthG
  • 27M. van EwijkD
  • 2E. PinnockD
  • 4B. ThomasD
  • 3J. DasilvaD
  • 8Caleb Marfo YirenkyiM
  • 6M. GrimesM
  • 23B. Thomas-AsanteM
  • 5J. RudoniM
  • 10E. Mason-ClarkM
  • 49S. CherifF
Substitutes
  • 38G. HamerM
  • 29V. TorpM
  • 16F. OnyekaM
  • 7T. SakamotoM
  • 22J. LatibeaudiereD
  • 12S. MfuniD
  • 25D. BentleyG
  • 9E. SimmsF
  • 34Y. GbohoF
Coach: F. Lampard
Newcastle 4-2-3-1
  • 21L. HorníčekG
  • 67L. MileyD
  • 12M. ThiawD
  • 4S. BotmanD
  • 3L. HallD
  • 6Nico GonzálezM
  • 28J. WillockM
  • 23J. MurphyM
  • 9Y. WissaM
  • 11H. BarnesM
  • 20M. Fernandez-PardoF
Substitutes
  • 10W. OsulaF
  • 1N. PopeG
  • 37A. DedićD
  • 5F. SchärD
  • 33D. BurnD
  • 8A. BambaM
  • 7JoelintonM
  • 17B. TouréF
  • 14Sean SteurM
Coach: Matthias Jaissle

Form going into Coventry vs Newcastle

Coventry

All competitions we cover

  • W1-0away to Nottingham Forest19 September 2026
  • L0-5Brighton13 September 2026
  • L0-1away to Manchester City5 September 2026
  • L0-1Hull City29 August 2026
  • L0-3away to Arsenal21 August 2026

Newcastle

All competitions we cover

  • W2-1Hull City19 September 2026
  • L1-4away to Leeds14 September 2026
  • D2-2Bournemouth5 September 2026
  • W2-0away to Tottenham29 August 2026
  • D2-2Liverpool23 August 2026

What these results say

  • Coventry failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Coventry failed to score in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Coventry conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Newcastle scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Newcastle conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Newcastle had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
17Coventry103071019-99
12Newcastle103341316-312

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

The result against the call

Coventry beat Newcastle 4–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Newcastle at 47% and given a win for Coventry 26%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Jack Rudoni (penalty) 6' for Coventry, Sidiki Cherif 48' for Coventry, Sven Botman 70' for Newcastle, Ellis Simms 81' for Coventry, Stephen Mfuni 86' for Coventry. On expected goals it finished 1.47–1.87.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Coventry a 73.7% chance to finish in the bottom three: 67.2% after a win, 72.4% after a draw, 78.2% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 67.2%, 6.5 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Premier League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Coventry v Newcastle has moved

First published on 28 Sep at 27% / 28% / 45% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 26% / 27% / 47%: the biggest move is Newcastle's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. Coventry win26%▼ −1
  2. Draw27%▼ −1
  3. Newcastle win47%▲ +2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.