Los Angeles Galaxy vs San Jose Earthquakes Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: Los Angeles Galaxy 1-0 San Jose Earthquakes.
Before kick-off the model made it 55% Los Angeles Galaxy, 19% draw, 26% San Jose Earthquakes — fair odds of 1.82, 5.26 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Los Angeles Galaxy at 55% here. Across 2488 settled matches, 635 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Los Angeles Galaxy vs San Jose Earthquakes
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 12J. MarcinkowskiG
- 26H. MillerD
- 5J. GlesnesD
- 4M. YoshidaD
- 3J. AudeD
- 8L. SanabriaM
- 15J. HaakM
- 28J. PaintsilM
- 18M. ReusM
- 11H. LozanoM
- 7K. FuruhashiF
- 1N. MicovicG
- 14J. NelsonD
- 20C. RindovD
- 27E. ThommyM
- 16I. ParenteM
- 24R. RamosF
- 76T. ElgersmaM
- 21R. TaylorM
- 1A. GunnG
- 17J. JasinskiD
- 25M. FlorianiD
- 4D. RomneyD
- 2J. RickettsD
- 6I. HarkesM
- 20N. FernandezM
- 16J. SkahanM
- 10N. TsakirisM
- 3P. MarieM
- 9L. JovanovicF
- 31F. MontaliG
- 87Vitor CostaD
- 5D. MunieD
- 40J. A. Gonzalez MendozaM
- 34B. LerouxM
- 19P. JuddF
- 7O. BoudaF
- 11T. WernerF
- 28B. KikanovicF
Form going into Los Angeles Galaxy vs San Jose Earthquakes
Los Angeles Galaxy
- L0-1away to Houston Dynamo16 August 2026
- D0-0FC Dallas2 August 2026
- D1-1away to San Jose Earthquakes26 July 2026
- L1-3St. Louis City23 July 2026
- L0-3Los Angeles FC18 July 2026
San Jose Earthquakes
- L1-3St. Louis City16 August 2026
- L2-4away to FC Cincinnati1 August 2026
- D1-1Los Angeles Galaxy26 July 2026
- L0-4Orlando City SC23 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Los Angeles Galaxy | 26 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 31 | 40 | -9 | 30 |
| 4 | San Jose Earthquakes | 25 | 12 | 5 | 8 | 44 | 36 | +8 | 41 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Los Angeles Galaxy vs San Jose Earthquakes
- 20 August 2026Los Angeles Galaxy 1–0 San Jose EarthquakesMajor League Soccer
- 26 July 2026San Jose Earthquakes 1–1 Los Angeles GalaxyMajor League Soccer
- 29 June 2025San Jose Earthquakes 1–1 Los Angeles GalaxyMajor League Soccer
- 29 May 2025Los Angeles Galaxy 0–1 San Jose EarthquakesMajor League Soccer
- 1 August 2024San Jose Earthquakes 1–2 Los Angeles GalaxyLeagues Cup
- 30 June 2024San Jose Earthquakes 0–3 Los Angeles GalaxyMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: Los Angeles Galaxy and San Jose Earthquakes
Los Angeles Galaxy
No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 31 league goals as a side.
San Jose Earthquakes
- P. Judd12 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.