20 August 2026, 02:30 UTC

Vancouver Whitecaps vs Houston Dynamo Major League Soccer prediction & result

BC Place, Vancouver
Full time0 1

Final score: Vancouver Whitecaps 0-1 Houston Dynamo.

Before kick-off the model made it 54% Vancouver Whitecaps, 27% draw, 19% Houston Dynamo — fair odds of 1.85, 3.70 and 5.26. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Vancouver Whitecaps at 54% here. Across 2488 settled matches, 635 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Vancouver Whitecaps0%Draw5%Houston Dynamo95%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Andrés Cubas
26'
34'
F. Negri
37'
Agustin Resch
41'
Agustín Bouzat
🔁C. Sabalyout: T. Muller
46'
Rayan Elloumi
66'
70'
🔁Guilhermeout: D. McGuire
🔁E. Sabbiout: B. Caicedo
73'
🔁A. Cubasout: R. Priso
74'
75'
🔁F. Negriout: M. Saracchi
75'
🔁H. Herreraout: D. Samassekou
79'
🔁L. Ennaliout: D. Holmes
🔁T. Johnsonout: S. Adekugbe
88'
🔁E. Ocampoout: N. Djordjevic
88'

Match stats — Vancouver Whitecaps vs Houston Dynamo

64%Possession36%
17Shots9
1On target5
7Corners2
1.32xG0.55

Goals against chances

Vancouver Whitecaps0 from 1.32 xGless than the chances were worth
Houston Dynamo1 from 0.55 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Vancouver Whitecaps 4-2-3-1
  • 1Y. TakaokaG
  • 18E. OcampoD
  • 2M. LabordaD
  • 33T. BlackmonD
  • 28T. JohnsonD
  • 8O. LarrazM
  • 20A. CubasM
  • 11E. SabbiM
  • 25R. GauldM
  • 7C. SabalyM
  • 19R. ElloumiF
Substitutes
  • 32I. BoehmerG
  • 29M. GherasimencovD
  • 3S. AdekugbeD
  • 14B. CaicedoF
  • 41N. DjordjevicD
  • 6R. PrisoM
  • 97L. MacKenzieM
  • 26J. NgandoM
  • 13T. MullerF
Coach: Jesper Sorensen
Houston Dynamo 4-2-3-1
  • 31J. BondG
  • 11L. EnnaliD
  • 34A. ReschD
  • 5Lucas HalterD
  • 21F. NegriD
  • 6ArturM
  • 16H. HerreraM
  • 8J. McGlynnM
  • 30A. BouzatM
  • 20GuilhermeM
  • 19M. BoguszF
Substitutes
  • 26B. GillinghamG
  • 28E. SviatchenkoD
  • 3Antonio CarlosD
  • 4M. SaracchiD
  • 18D. SamassekouM
  • 14D. HolmesM
  • 9O. LingrM
  • 23D. McGuireF
  • 24I. AliyuF
Coach: Ben Olsen

Form going into Vancouver Whitecaps vs Houston Dynamo

Vancouver Whitecaps

  • W2-0away to Seattle Sounders17 August 2026
  • D1-1Los Angeles FC1 August 2026
  • D0-0away to Minnesota United FC26 July 2026
  • L3-4away to FC Cincinnati22 July 2026

Houston Dynamo

  • W1-0Los Angeles Galaxy16 August 2026
  • W2-0away to New England Revolution8 August 2026
  • W2-0away to Sporting Kansas City2 August 2026
  • W3-0Austin26 July 2026
  • D1-1DC United23 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Major League Soccer table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1Vancouver Whitecaps2414465323+3046
2Houston Dynamo2513483228+443

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Vancouver Whitecaps vs Houston Dynamo

  • 20 August 2026Vancouver Whitecaps 0–1 Houston DynamoMajor League Soccer
  • 17 May 2026Houston Dynamo 1–0 Vancouver WhitecapsMajor League Soccer
  • 18 August 2025Vancouver Whitecaps 1–1 Houston DynamoMajor League Soccer
  • 17 July 2025Houston Dynamo 0–3 Vancouver WhitecapsMajor League Soccer
  • 19 September 2024Houston Dynamo 1–1 Vancouver WhitecapsMajor League Soccer
  • 21 July 2024Vancouver Whitecaps 3–4 Houston DynamoMajor League Soccer

Leading scorers: Vancouver Whitecaps and Houston Dynamo

Vancouver Whitecaps

  • B. White15 goals2 assists

Houston Dynamo

  • Guilherme13 goals6 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.