24 August 2026, 19:15 UTC

GIL Vicente vs Casa Pia Primeira Liga prediction & result

Barcelos
Full time2 – 0

Final score: GIL Vicente 2-0 Casa Pia.

Before kick-off the model made it 38% GIL Vicente, 29% draw, 33% Casa Pia — fair odds of 2.63, 3.45 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts GIL Vicente at 38% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1767 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

GIL Vicente99%Draw1%Casa Pia0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽G. Pinto Martinsassist: H. Hernandez
20'
36'
Sebastián Pérez
⚽H. Hernandez (pen)
45'
🔁A. Lausenout: D. Prioste
60'
🔁J. Fernandesout: Murilo de Souza
60'
60'
🔁H. Araujoout: Cassiano
69'
🔁A. Jattaout: C. Mendes
70'
🔁S. Perezout: Gabi
🔁F. Caseresout: Ze Carlos
74'
🔁H. Hernandezout: Carlos Eduardo
74'
77'
🔁A. Conteout: P. Rosas
77'
🔁Rochinhaout: A. Dafe
🔁G. Pinto Martinsout: A. Moreira
79'
Marvin Elimbi Gilbert
82'

Match stats — GIL Vicente vs Casa Pia

56%Possession44%
8Shots13
4On target2
3Corners4
1.74xG0.76

Goals against chances

GIL Vicente2 from 1.74 xGabout what the chances were worth
Casa Pia0 from 0.76 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

GIL Vicente 4-2-3-1
  • 30LucaoG
  • 47R. EsgaioD
  • 4M. ElimbiD
  • 39J. BuatuD
  • 26WeversonD
  • 5F. CaseresM
  • 12A. LausenM
  • 11J. FernandesM
  • 10S. GarciaM
  • 20G. Pinto MartinsM
  • 23H. HernandezF
Substitutes
  • 94Samuel PortugalG
  • 3A. EspigaresD
  • 45D. MoreiraD
  • 2J. SilvaD
  • 6Ze CarlosM
  • 32M. FernandezM
  • 86D. PriosteM
  • 77Murilo de SouzaF
  • 99M. KabaF
Coach: Luis Pinto
Casa Pia 4-3-3
  • 31A. GomesG
  • 18A. GeraldesD
  • 4J. GoulartD
  • 43D. SousaD
  • 5A. ConteD
  • 80L. OforiM
  • 16S. CluaM
  • 24S. PerezM
  • 9H. AraujoF
  • 20A. JattaF
  • 10RochinhaF
Substitutes
  • 22D. AzevedoG
  • 95I. MandicG
  • 27Kaique RochaD
  • 75P. RosasD
  • 8GabiM
  • 11R. BlancoM
  • 19K. PrietoF
  • 98JPM
  • 59A. DafeM
Coach: Filipe Coelho

Form going into GIL Vicente vs Casa Pia

GIL Vicente

  • W1-0Rio Ave9 August 2026

Casa Pia

  • L0-7Benfica17 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Primeira Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
9GIL Vicente52124407
18Casa Pia6015115-141

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: GIL Vicente vs Casa Pia

  • 24 August 2026GIL Vicente 2–0 Casa PiaPrimeira Liga
  • 27 April 2026GIL Vicente 2–1 Casa PiaPrimeira Liga
  • 13 December 2025Casa Pia 1–1 GIL VicentePrimeira Liga
  • 22 February 2025Casa Pia 1–0 GIL VicentePrimeira Liga
  • 22 September 2024GIL Vicente 1–1 Casa PiaPrimeira Liga
  • 3 March 2024Casa Pia 0–0 GIL VicentePrimeira Liga

Leading scorers: GIL Vicente and Casa Pia

GIL Vicente

  • Héctor Hernández3 goals1 assists

Casa Pia

No player in Primeira Liga's leading scorers — 1 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.