Atletico Madrid vs Osasuna La Liga prediction & result
Final score: Atletico Madrid 4-0 Osasuna.
Before kick-off the model made it 44% Atletico Madrid, 28% draw, 28% Osasuna — fair odds of 2.27, 3.57 and 3.57.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Atletico Madrid at 44%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Atletico Madrid vs Osasuna
Line-ups
- 13J. OblakG
- 14Marcos LlorenteD
- 21C. RomeroD
- 24Robin Le NormandD
- 22Álex GrimaldoD
- 7Lee Kang-InM
- 6KokeM
- 5J. CardosoM
- 10Álex BaenaM
- 15J. DavidF
- 11A. LookmanF
- 25Salvador EsquivelG
- 1J. MussoG
- 18Marc PubillD
- 17D. HanckoD
- 27J. DominguezD
- 20G. SimeoneF
- 23M. HjulmandM
- 3O. VargasM
- 16Arnau OrtizF
- 13Aitor FernándezG
- 27Íñigo ArguibideD
- 48R. YeboahD
- 22F. BoyomoD
- 35U. SantosD
- 23Abel BretonesD
- 21Jonathan DubasinM
- 6Lucas TorróM
- 29Asier OsambelaM
- 18Raul MoroM
- 9Raúl GarcíaF
- 11Kike BarjaF
- 14Rubén GarcíaM
- 20R. Del CastilloM
- 8Iker MuñozM
- 26Mauro EchegoyenM
- 17A. BudimirF
- 7MoncayolaM
- 15Diego RicoD
- 24CatenaD
Form going into Atletico Madrid vs Osasuna
Atletico Madrid
All competitions we cover
- W3-0away to Real Sociedad13 September 2026
- L1-2away to Liverpool9 September 2026
- L0-3away to Athletic Club5 September 2026
- W3-1away to Sevilla29 August 2026
- D2-2Villarreal23 August 2026
Osasuna
All competitions we cover
- L0-2Espanyol12 September 2026
- L2-5away to Alaves6 September 2026
- W1-0Getafe31 August 2026
- W2-1away to Celta Vigo27 August 2026
- D0-0Levante24 August 2026
What these results say
- Every one of these 5 matches for Atletico Madrid had three goals or more.
- Atletico Madrid scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Atletico Madrid conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Atletico Madrid | 12 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 23 | 10 | +13 | 28 |
| 16 | Osasuna | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 12 | 23 | -11 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Atletico Madrid vs Osasuna
- 12 May 2026Osasuna 1–2 Atletico MadridLa Liga
- 18 October 2025Atletico Madrid 1–0 OsasunaLa Liga
- 15 May 2025Osasuna 2–0 Atletico MadridLa Liga
- 12 January 2025Atletico Madrid 1–0 OsasunaLa Liga
- 19 May 2024Atletico Madrid 1–4 OsasunaLa Liga
Leading scorers: Atletico Madrid and Osasuna
Atletico Madrid
GoalsAssists
- Álex Baena53
- G. Simeone42
Osasuna
GoalsAssists
- A. Budimir80
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Atletico Madrid beat Osasuna 4–0. The model had made a win for Atletico Madrid its most likely outcome, at 44%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Jonathan David 24' for Atletico Madrid, Lee Kang-In 54' for Atletico Madrid, Robin Le Normand 63' for Atletico Madrid, Alejandro Baena Rodríguez 82' for Atletico Madrid.
How the call on Atletico Madrid v Osasuna has moved
First published on 2 Sep at 41% / 28% / 31% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 11 updates, it read 44% / 28% / 28%: the biggest move is Atletico Madrid's chance of winning, up 3 points.
- Atletico Madrid win44%▲ +3
- Draw28%=
- Osasuna win28%▼ −3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.