Atletico Madrid
vs
Osasuna
La Liga prediction & result
Final score: Atletico Madrid 4-0 Osasuna.
Before kick-off the model made it 55% Atletico Madrid, 25% draw, 20% Osasuna — fair odds of 1.82, 4.00 and 5.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (10%).
Expected goals: Atletico Madrid 2.26, Osasuna 0.94.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 62%, under 2.5: 38%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
Model insights: Atletico Madrid vs Osasuna
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Atletico Madrid at 55% here. Across 2477 settled matches, 634 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Atletico Madrid vs Osasuna
Line-ups
- 13J. OblakG
- 14Marcos LlorenteD
- 21C. RomeroD
- 24Robin Le NormandD
- 22Álex GrimaldoD
- 7Lee Kang-InM
- 6KokeM
- 5J. CardosoM
- 10Álex BaenaM
- 15J. DavidF
- 11A. LookmanF
- 25Salvador EsquivelG
- 1J. MussoG
- 18Marc PubillD
- 17D. HanckoD
- 27J. DominguezD
- 20G. SimeoneF
- 23M. HjulmandM
- 3O. VargasM
- 16Arnau OrtizF
- 13Aitor FernándezG
- 27Íñigo ArguibideD
- 48R. YeboahD
- 22F. BoyomoD
- 35U. SantosD
- 23Abel BretonesD
- 21Jonathan DubasinM
- 6Lucas TorróM
- 29Asier OsambelaM
- 18Raul MoroM
- 9Raúl GarcíaF
- 11Kike BarjaF
- 14Rubén GarcíaM
- 20R. Del CastilloM
- 8Iker MuñozM
- 26Mauro EchegoyenM
- 17A. BudimirF
- 7MoncayolaM
- 15Diego RicoD
- 24CatenaD
Form going into Atletico Madrid vs Osasuna
Atletico Madrid
- W3-0away to Real Sociedad13 September 2026
- L0-3away to Athletic Club5 September 2026
- W3-1away to Sevilla29 August 2026
- D2-2Villarreal23 August 2026
Osasuna
- L0-2Espanyol12 September 2026
- L2-5away to Alaves6 September 2026
- W1-0Getafe31 August 2026
- W2-1away to Celta Vigo27 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Atletico Madrid | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 6 | +8 | 13 |
| 13 | Osasuna | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 12 | -7 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Atletico Madrid vs Osasuna
- 12 May 2026Osasuna 1–2 Atletico MadridLa Liga
- 18 October 2025Atletico Madrid 1–0 OsasunaLa Liga
- 15 May 2025Osasuna 2–0 Atletico MadridLa Liga
- 12 January 2025Atletico Madrid 1–0 OsasunaLa Liga
- 19 May 2024Atletico Madrid 1–4 OsasunaLa Liga
- 28 September 2023Osasuna 0–2 Atletico MadridLa Liga
Leading scorers: Atletico Madrid and Osasuna
Atletico Madrid
- Álex Baena3 goals1 assists
- G. Simeone2 goals1 assists
Osasuna
- A. Budimir4 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 2.26 goals for Atletico Madrid and 0.94 for Osasuna; the game produced 4 and 0.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Jonathan David 24' (Atletico Madrid), Lee Kang-In 54' (Atletico Madrid), Robin Le Normand 63' (Atletico Madrid), Alejandro Baena Rodríguez 82' (Atletico Madrid).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1168 correct results out of 2477 settled predictions (47%), with 234 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Atletico Madrid the highest probability at 55%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.26 expected goals for Atletico Madrid against 0.94 for Osasuna. Atletico Madrid's attack/defence rating is 1.15/0.87 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.9/1.21 for Osasuna.