Deportivo La Coruna
vs
Sevilla
La Liga prediction & result
Final score: Deportivo La Coruna 0-1 Sevilla.
Before kick-off the model made it 32% Deportivo La Coruna, 30% draw, 38% Sevilla — fair odds of 3.13, 3.33 and 2.63. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Deportivo La Coruna 1.17, Sevilla 1.40.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 47%, under 2.5: 53%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Model insights: Deportivo La Coruna vs Sevilla
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Sevilla at 38% here. Across 2477 settled matches, 1764 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Deportivo La Coruna vs Sevilla
Line-ups
- 13Leo RománG
- 2Adrià AltiD
- 20J. GiménezD
- 15Miguel LoureiroD
- 17AngeliñoD
- 19Luismi CruzM
- 16L. AmatucciM
- 14Riki RodríguezM
- 10PekeM
- 32B. NsongoF
- 7P. AubameyangF
- 8Diego VillaresM
- 6Marc CasadóM
- 9Z. EddahchouriF
- 22B. EdeD
- 25Álvaro FernándezG
- 18Jonathan Asp JensenM
- 11David MellaF
- 23Ximo NavarroD
- 4L. NoubiD
- 1O. VlachodimosG
- 2Juan IglesiasD
- 5Andrés CastrínD
- 4Kike SalasD
- 17G. SuazoD
- 6L. AgouméM
- 24Y. FofanaM
- 30M. SierraM
- 18Jon GuridiM
- 20Félix CorreiaM
- 19L. StassinF
- 22José Ángel CarmonaD
- 3Julio Díaz del RomoD
- 21C. EjukeF
- 10Peque FernándezF
- 7Alfon GonzálezF
- 13Fran GonzálezG
- 8G. KochorashviliM
- 34Iker Ortín MuñozD
- 16IsaacF
Form going into Deportivo La Coruna vs Sevilla
Deportivo La Coruna
- D1-1away to Getafe13 September 2026
- W3-2away to Villarreal5 September 2026
- W3-1Valencia30 August 2026
- D1-1away to Malaga24 August 2026
Sevilla
- W1-0Valencia11 September 2026
- D1-1away to Espanyol6 September 2026
- L1-3Atletico Madrid29 August 2026
- W3-1away to Athletic Club22 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Deportivo La Coruna | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 7 | +2 | 9 |
| 4 | Sevilla | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 6 | +3 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Deportivo La Coruna vs Sevilla
- 17 April 2018Deportivo La Coruna 0–0 SevillaLa Liga
- 2 December 2017Sevilla 2–0 Deportivo La CorunaLa Liga
- 8 April 2017Sevilla 4–2 Deportivo La CorunaLa Liga
- 19 November 2016Deportivo La Coruna 2–3 SevillaLa Liga
- 17 April 2016Sevilla 1–1 Deportivo La CorunaLa Liga
- 5 December 2015Deportivo La Coruna 1–1 SevillaLa Liga
Leading scorers: Deportivo La Coruna and Sevilla
Deportivo La Coruna
- P. Aubameyang5 goals2 assists
Sevilla
No player in La Liga's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.17 goals for Deportivo La Coruna and 1.40 for Sevilla; the game produced 0 and 1.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Miguel Sierra 52' (Sevilla).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1168 correct results out of 2477 settled predictions (47%), with 234 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sevilla the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Deportivo La Coruna against 1.4 for Sevilla. Deportivo La Coruna's attack/defence rating is 0.95/1.26 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.92/0.76 for Sevilla.