Barcelona
vs
Racing Santander
La Liga prediction & result
Final score: Barcelona 7-2 Racing Santander.
Before kick-off the model made it 62% Barcelona, 21% draw, 17% Racing Santander — fair odds of 1.61, 4.76 and 5.88. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (9%).
Expected goals: Barcelona 2.94, Racing Santander 0.99.
Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 75%, under 2.5: 25%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
Model insights: Barcelona vs Racing Santander
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Barcelona at 62% here. Across 2477 settled matches, 634 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Barcelona vs Racing Santander
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1J. GarciaG
- 24E. GarciaD
- 15A. ChristensenD
- 18G. MartinD
- 2J. CanceloD
- 20D. OlmoM
- 16RodriM
- 8PedriM
- 10Lamine YamalF
- 11RaphinhaF
- 14K. AdeyemiF
- 13W. SzczesnyG
- 25D. LivakovicG
- 23J. KoundeD
- 3A. BaldeD
- 5P. CubarsiD
- 12X. EspartD
- 6GaviM
- 22M. BernalM
- 7FerminM
- 13J. AgirrezabalaG
- 4Manu HernandoD
- 22Pedro FelipeD
- 16F. GonzalezD
- 3A. MartinD
- 18M. PratiM
- 20S. CanalesM
- 14M. GueyeM
- 6I. Sainz-MazaM
- 12A. VillalibreF
- 9J. AranaF
- 31L. Gomez RodriguezG
- 2A. MantillaD
- 17J. SalinasD
- 5P. RamonD
- 24J. BelocianD
- 23I. MartinM
- 7G. GuliashviliF
- 21Y. ZabiriF
- 10I. VicenteF
Form going into Barcelona vs Racing Santander
Barcelona
- W4-2away to Levante13 September 2026
- W5-0away to Valencia6 September 2026
- W5-2Rayo Vallecano31 August 2026
- W2-0Athletic Club27 August 2026
Racing Santander
- W2-1Alaves12 September 2026
- L2-3away to Rayo Vallecano5 September 2026
- W3-2Elche28 August 2026
- L0-1away to Getafe23 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 28 | 6 | +22 | 18 |
| 10 | Racing Santander | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 16 | -5 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Barcelona vs Racing Santander
- 15 January 2026Racing Santander 0–2 BarcelonaCopa del Rey
- 11 March 2012Racing Santander 0–2 BarcelonaLa Liga
- 15 October 2011Barcelona 3–0 Racing SantanderLa Liga
- 22 January 2011Barcelona 3–0 Racing SantanderLa Liga
- 29 August 2010Racing Santander 0–3 BarcelonaLa Liga
Leading scorers: Barcelona and Racing Santander
Barcelona
- Raphinha6 goals3 assists
- Lamine Yamal6 goals
- Fermín4 goals2 assists
Racing Santander
- M. Zabiri5 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 2.94 goals for Barcelona and 0.99 for Racing Santander; the game produced 7 and 2.
A gap that size between expected and actual goals is normal in a single match — it is the reason we publish probabilities rather than predictions, and why the record below is measured over hundreds of games rather than one.
Goals
Scorers, in order: J. Cancelo 8' (Barcelona), Raphinha 25' (Barcelona), M. Gueye 30' (Racing Santander), A. Villalibre 36' (Barcelona), Raphinha 42' (Barcelona), Y. Zabiri 65' (Racing Santander), Raphinha 67' (Barcelona), Gabriel Jesus 79' (Barcelona), Lamine Yamal 89' (Barcelona).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1168 correct results out of 2477 settled predictions (47%), with 234 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Barcelona the highest probability at 62%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.94 expected goals for Barcelona against 0.99 for Racing Santander. Barcelona's attack/defence rating is 1.77/0.75 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.09/1.02 for Racing Santander.