Regular Season - 17 · 28 November 2026, 12:30 UTC

Milton Keynes Dons vs Notts County League One prediction

Stadium MK, Milton Keynes

Our model says: Milton Keynes Dons 2–1 Notts County

The model makes it 45% Milton Keynes Dons, 26% draw, 29% Notts County — fair odds of 2.22, 3.85 and 3.45.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

Expected goals: Milton Keynes Dons 1.70, Notts County 1.29.

Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%, under 2.5: 43%.

Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,958 settled matches.

Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Milton Keynes Dons's rating is built from 14 League One matches and Notts County's from 12, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,277 matches.

Key facts

  • Milton Keynes Dons are 9th on 21 points from 14 games; Notts County are 18th on 14 points from 12 games — League One.
  • Milton Keynes Dons are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 6-2 win at home to Burton Albion.
  • Notts County are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 2-0 win away to Mansfield Town.
  • Last 6 meetings: Notts County 3 wins to 0, 3 draws; the most recent, 29 December 2025, ended Milton Keynes Dons 1–1 Notts County.

More League One predictions

All League One predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Milton Keynes Dons vs Notts County

60%
Both teams to score
57%
Over 2.5 goals
43%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Milton Keynes Dons win Draw Notts County win
  1. 1–112%
  2. 2–19%
  3. 1–08%
  4. 2–07%
  5. 1–27%
  6. 2–26%
  7. 0–16%

Scores read Milton Keynes Dons first; the other scorelines share the remaining 45%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Milton Keynes Dons at 45%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Milton Keynes Dons vs Notts County

Milton Keynes Dons

League One

  • W6-2Burton Albion14 November 2026
  • W6-1Doncaster31 October 2026
  • W4-1Bromley27 October 2026
  • W1-0away to Stevenage24 October 2026
  • L0-2away to Blackpool20 October 2026

Notts County

League One

  • W2-0away to Mansfield Town31 October 2026
  • D1-1Stockport County24 October 2026
  • W2-0Sheffield Wednesday20 October 2026
  • L0-2away to Wycombe17 October 2026
  • L1-2Oxford United10 October 2026

What these results say

  • Milton Keynes Dons won 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Milton Keynes Dons scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Milton Keynes Dons conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Notts County scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Notts County had two goals or fewer.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

League One table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
9Milton Keynes Dons145632822+621
18Notts County123541314-114

Where the two sides stand. Full table

Head-to-head: Milton Keynes Dons vs Notts County

  • 29 December 2025Milton Keynes Dons 1–1 Notts CountyLeague Two
  • 9 December 2025Notts County 3–2 Milton Keynes DonsLeague Two
  • 2 April 2025Notts County 3–0 Milton Keynes DonsLeague Two
  • 26 December 2024Milton Keynes Dons 0–2 Notts CountyLeague Two
  • 1 April 2024Notts County 3–3 Milton Keynes DonsLeague Two
  • 9 September 2023Milton Keynes Dons 1–1 Notts CountyLeague Two

Leading scorers: Milton Keynes Dons and Notts County

Milton Keynes Dons

GoalsAssists

  • A. Collins133

Notts County

No player in League One's leading scorers — 13 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Milton Keynes Dons a 2.1% chance of the title and Notts County 0.5%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

How the call on Milton Keynes Dons v Notts County has moved

First published on 14 Nov at 40% / 28% / 32% (home / draw / away). After 1 update it reads 45% / 26% / 29%: the biggest move is Milton Keynes Dons's chance of winning, up 5 points.

  1. Milton Keynes Dons win45%▲ +5
  2. Draw26%▼ −2
  3. Notts County win29%▼ −3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Milton Keynes Dons Notts County
0.75 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.51
2.04 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.48
1.70 Model expected goals (this match) 1.29

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Milton Keynes Dons the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Milton Keynes Dons against 1.29 for Notts County. Milton Keynes Dons's attack/defence rating is 0.75/2.04 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.51/1.48 for Notts County.

Milton Keynes Dons carry a model rating of 6.37 against 6.33 for Notts County. A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

How the model reaches 45% for Milton Keynes Dons to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Milton Keynes Dons to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, the level of the two sides adds 1 point, Milton Keynes Dons's ratings add 2 points and Notts County's ratings change nothing, which lands on the published 45%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage42%+6
  3. Both sides at this match's level43%+1
  4. Milton Keynes Dons's ratings45%+2
  5. Notts County's ratings45%±0

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

Milton Keynes DonsNotts County
14Matches12
5W 6D 3LRecord3W 5D 4L
28 2.0 per gameGoals scored13 1.1 per game
22 1.6 per gameGoals conceded14 1.2 per game
3 of 14Clean sheets2 of 12
3 of 14Failed to score3 of 12
1 of 1Penalties scored2 of 2
24 1.7 per gameYellow cards33 2.8 per game
3-1-4-2 11×Usual shape3-4-2-1 8×

Milton Keynes Dons at home · Notts County away

8Played6
4W 3D 1LRecord1W 3D 2L
21–12Goals for – against6–8
1 of 8Clean sheets1 of 6

League matches only, League One, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All League One matches this season: Milton Keynes Dons 14, Notts County 12.

Milton Keynes Dons scored 243649
Notts County conceded 123233

Milton Keynes Dons score most often in the 76–90 minute window (9 goals); Notts County have let in 3 there.

Notts County scored 122035
Milton Keynes Dons conceded 213466

Notts County score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Milton Keynes Dons have let in 6 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 3 matches, by difficulty

Milton Keynes Dons

  • at Bradford1 Dec · League Onewin 31%
  • vs Cambridge United12 Dec · League Onewin 51%
  • at Stockport County19 Dec · League Onewin 27%

Notts County

  • vs AFC Wimbledon1 Dec · League Onewin 53%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.