Marseille vs Paris Saint Germain Ligue 1 prediction & result
Final score: Marseille 1-2 Paris Saint Germain.
Before kick-off the model made it 40% Marseille, 28% draw, 32% Paris Saint Germain — fair odds of 2.50, 3.57 and 3.13.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Ligue 1 (France) predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Marseille at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Marseille vs Paris Saint Germain
Line-ups
- 1J. de LangeG
- 22T. WeahD
- 4C. Egan-RileyD
- 21N. AguerdD
- 33EmersonD
- 77A. HaritM
- 23P. HøjbjergM
- 8H. AbdelliM
- 14Igor PaixãoM
- 11N. MaupayF
- 9A. GouiriF
- 13D. CorneliusD
- 74K. BezahafD
- 7A. GomesM
- 25U. GarciaD
- 48K. AbdallahF
- 46E. MbondoD
- 43T. MmadiF
- 29F. MoumbagnaF
- 92T. VermotG
- 39M. SafonovG
- 33W. Zaïre-EmeryD
- 5MarquinhosD
- 51W. PachoD
- 25Nuno MendesD
- 87João NevesM
- 17VitinhaM
- 8Fabián RuizM
- 14D. DouéF
- 10O. DembéléF
- 7K. KvaratskheliaF
- 11M. AklioucheM
- 30L. ChevalierG
- 12L. DigneD
- 27Pedro FernándezM
- 22M. GodtsF
- 4BeraldoD
- 24Senny MayuluM
- 9Ferran TorresF
- 6I. ZabarnyiD
Form going into Marseille vs Paris Saint Germain
Marseille
All competitions we cover
- L1-4away to Beşiktaş17 September 2026
- L0-1away to Rennes11 September 2026
- L2-3Paris FC6 September 2026
- L0-2away to Monaco30 August 2026
- W4-0Strasbourg21 August 2026
Paris Saint Germain
All competitions we cover
- W1-0away to Stade Brestois 2913 September 2026
- W6-1Slovan Bratislava9 September 2026
- L1-2Monaco4 September 2026
- D2-2away to Lille28 August 2026
- D2-2Rennes23 August 2026
What these results say
- Marseille failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Marseille conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Paris Saint Germain scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Paris Saint Germain conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Paris Saint Germain had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Marseille | 10 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 22 | 14 | +8 | 18 |
| 1 | Paris Saint Germain | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 22 | 10 | +12 | 23 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Marseille vs Paris Saint Germain
- 8 February 2026Paris Saint Germain 5–0 MarseilleLigue 1
- 8 January 2026Paris Saint Germain 2–2 MarseilleTrophée des Champions
- 22 September 2025Marseille 1–0 Paris Saint GermainLigue 1
- 16 March 2025Paris Saint Germain 3–1 MarseilleLigue 1
- 27 October 2024Marseille 0–3 Paris Saint GermainLigue 1
Leading scorers: Marseille and Paris Saint Germain
Marseille
GoalsAssists
- A. Gouiri73
- A. Harit31
Paris Saint Germain
GoalsAssists
- Ferran Torres41
- A. Hakimi32
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Paris Saint Germain won 2–1 at Marseille. The model had leaned towards a win for Marseille at 40% and given a win for Paris Saint Germain 32%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Ferrán Torres 66' for Paris Saint Germain, Angel Gomes 72' for Marseille, Marcos Aoás Corrêa 74' for Paris Saint Germain. Sent off: Timothy Weah (Marseille) 77'.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.