Toulouse vs Le Havre Ligue 1 prediction & result
Final score: Toulouse 3-2 Le Havre.
Before kick-off the model made it 43% Toulouse, 30% draw, 27% Le Havre — fair odds of 2.33, 3.33 and 3.70.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Ligue 1 (France) predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Toulouse at 43%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Toulouse vs Le Havre
Line-ups
- 16G. RestesG
- 22R. MessaliD
- 5S. KoumbassaD
- 3M. McKenzieD
- 12C. TapéD
- 8T. JørgensenM
- 14N. SigurM
- 23C. CásseresM
- 37Y. AziziM
- 13J. Russell-RoweF
- 20C. TengstedtF
- 18M. AmougouM
- 15A. DønnumM
- 9S. HidalgoF
- 60M. NifloreG
- 19D. OdoguD
- 11S. OppongF
- 31N. SchmidtM
- 7Julián VignoloF
- 6A. VossahM
- 93G. GallonG
- 23V. SassoD
- 15A. SekoD
- 5A. ToubaD
- 20D. OuziadM
- 26S. EbonogM
- 7A. RichardsonM
- 12E. JelertM
- 38R. FofanaM
- 25M. SamattaM
- 9J. MajaF
- 16A. BodartG
- 44I. BounebM
- 17K. MizutaM
- 78D. MosengoM
- 6J. MwangaM
- 30S. NakamuraF
- 14R. NdiayeM
- 27E. Koffi VinetteF
- 97M. NdiayeD
Form going into Toulouse vs Le Havre
Toulouse
All competitions we cover
- D2-2away to Lorient12 September 2026
- L0-1Lille3 September 2026
- D2-2away to Stade Brestois 2929 August 2026
- L0-2Lyon22 August 2026
Le Havre
All competitions we cover
- D0-0Angers12 September 2026
- L1-2Stade Brestois 295 September 2026
- D1-1away to Lyon29 August 2026
- L0-1Monaco23 August 2026
What these results say
- Toulouse did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Toulouse conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Le Havre did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Le Havre conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Le Havre had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Toulouse | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 15 | 14 | +1 | 13 |
| 18 | Le Havre | 10 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 9 | 22 | -13 | 2 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Toulouse vs Le Havre
- 15 February 2026Le Havre 2–1 ToulouseLigue 1
- 2 November 2025Toulouse 0–0 Le HavreLigue 1
- 23 February 2025Le Havre 1–4 ToulouseLigue 1
- 15 September 2024Toulouse 2–0 Le HavreLigue 1
- 10 March 2024Le Havre 1–0 ToulouseLigue 1
Leading scorers: Toulouse and Le Havre
Toulouse
GoalsAssists
- C. Tengstedt51
Le Havre
GoalsAssists
- J. Maja40
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Toulouse beat Le Havre 3–2. The model had made a win for Toulouse its most likely outcome, at 43%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Casper Tengstedt (penalty) 49' for Toulouse, Casper Tengstedt 51' for Toulouse, Josh Maja 71' for Le Havre, Thomas Jorgensen 79' for Toulouse, Mbwana Ally Samatta 88' for Le Havre.
How the call on Toulouse v Le Havre has moved
First published on 5 Sep at 47% / 29% / 24% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 43% / 30% / 27%: the biggest move is Toulouse's chance of winning, down 4 points.
- Toulouse win43%▼ −4
- Draw30%▲ +1
- Le Havre win27%▲ +3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.