20 September 2026, 18:15 UTC

Lech Poznan vs Radomiak Radom Ekstraklasa prediction & result

Stadion Poznan
Full time5 – 1

Final score: Lech Poznan 5-1 Radomiak Radom.

Before kick-off the model made it 49% Lech Poznan, 26% draw, 25% Radomiak Radom — fair odds of 2.04, 3.85 and 4.00.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Lech Poznan at 49%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Lech Poznan99%Draw1%Radomiak Radom0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

1'
⚽Guilherme Luizassist: Romário Baró
⚽Pablo Rodriguez Delgadoassist: Joel Pereira
3'
6'
Che Nunnely
⚽Patrick Walemark
9'
14'
Lucas Lima Linhares
⚽Allahyar Sayyadmaneshassist: Mikael Ishak
41'
45'
🔁Romário Baróout: Rafał Wolski
45'
🔁Lucas Lima Linharesout: Ibrahima Camará
⚽Patrick Walemark
51'
Joel Pereira
60'
🔁Filip Jagiełłoout: Luis Palma
62'
🔁Mikael Ishakout: Y. Agnero
62'
⚽Pablo Rodriguez Delgadoassist: Patrick Walemark
67'
67'
🔁Che Nunnelyout: Manu
🔁Allahyar Sayyadmaneshout: Daniel Håkans
70'
🔁Patrick Walemarkout: Leo Bengtsson
70'
73'
🔁Guilherme Luizout: Bi Irié Fernand Gouré
74'
🔁Christos Donisout: Roberto Oliveira Alves
🔁Joel Pereiraout: Robert Gumny
81'

Match stats — Lech Poznan vs Radomiak Radom

62%Possession38%
26Shots12
9On target5
10Corners6

Line-ups

Lech Poznan 4-4-2
  • 1M. LisG
  • 2Joel PereiraD
  • 72M. SkrzypczakD
  • 27W. MońkaD
  • 15M. GurgulD
  • 10P. WålemarkM
  • 22R. MurawskiM
  • 21Pablo RodríguezM
  • 17A. SayyadmaneshM
  • 9M. IshakF
  • 24F. JagiełłoF
Substitutes
  • 7Y. AgneroF
  • 14L. BengtssonM
  • 53K. DelikatM
  • 20R. GumnyD
  • 11D. HåkansM
  • 4João MoutinhoD
  • 77L. PalmaM
  • 33M. PruchniewskiG
  • 59T. YegbeD
Coach: N. Frederiksen
Radomiak Radom 4-3-3
  • 1F. MajchrowiczG
  • 24Z. OuattaraD
  • 3K. SzcześniakD
  • 72F. KoperskiD
  • 13J. GrzesikD
  • 28Romário BaróM
  • 77C. DonisM
  • 82LuquinhasM
  • 7C. NunnelyF
  • 80Guilherme LuizF
  • 90Ronaldo AfonsoF
Substitutes
  • 26Adrián DiéguezD
  • 11F. GouréF
  • 99B. GradeckiG
  • 23K. KarasekM
  • 14S. KingueD
  • 18ManuF
  • 15A. TapsobaF
  • 27R. WolskiM
  • 8I. CamaráM
Coach: R. Grzyb

Form going into Lech Poznan vs Radomiak Radom

Lech Poznan

All competitions we cover

  • L0-4away to Crystal Palace17 September 2026
  • L1-2away to Gornik Zabrze12 September 2026
  • W1-0Raków Częstochowa6 September 2026
  • W2-1Jagiellonia3 September 2026
  • W3-2away to Widzew Łódź30 August 2026

Radomiak Radom

All competitions we cover

  • L0-2Piast Gliwice14 September 2026
  • D0-0away to Widzew Łódź5 September 2026
  • W2-1Cracovia Krakow29 August 2026
  • D0-0Zaglebie Lubin23 August 2026
  • L0-5away to Legia Warszawa14 August 2026

What these results say

  • Lech Poznan scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Lech Poznan conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Lech Poznan had three goals or more.
  • Radomiak Radom failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Radomiak Radom failed to score in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Ekstraklasa table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1Lech Poznan1310213413+2132
14Radomiak Radom144281729-1214

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Lech Poznan vs Radomiak Radom

  • 16 May 2026Radomiak Radom 1–3 Lech PoznanEkstraklasa
  • 23 November 2025Lech Poznan 4–1 Radomiak RadomEkstraklasa
  • 27 April 2025Radomiak Radom 2–2 Lech PoznanEkstraklasa
  • 26 October 2024Lech Poznan 2–1 Radomiak RadomEkstraklasa
  • 16 December 2023Radomiak Radom 2–2 Lech PoznanEkstraklasa

Leading scorers: Lech Poznan and Radomiak Radom

Lech Poznan

GoalsAssists

  • P. Wålemark73
  • Pablo Rodríguez67
  • A. Sayyadmanesh50

Radomiak Radom

GoalsAssists

  • J. Grzesik53

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Lech Poznan beat Radomiak Radom 5–1. The model had made a win for Lech Poznan its most likely outcome, at 49%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Guilherme Luiz 1' for Radomiak Radom, Pablo Rodriguez Delgado 3' for Lech Poznan, Patrick Walemark 9' for Lech Poznan, Allahyar Sayyadmanesh 41' for Lech Poznan, Patrick Walemark 51' for Lech Poznan, Pablo Rodriguez Delgado 67' for Lech Poznan.

How the call on Lech Poznan v Radomiak Radom has moved

First published on 6 Sep at 46% / 29% / 25% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 10 updates, it read 49% / 26% / 25%: the biggest move is Lech Poznan's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. Lech Poznan win49%▲ +3
  2. Draw26%▼ −3
  3. Radomiak Radom win25%=

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.