Middlesbrough vs Millwall Championship prediction & result
Final score: Middlesbrough 2-2 Millwall.
Before kick-off the model made it 44% Middlesbrough, 28% draw, 28% Millwall — fair odds of 2.27, 3.57 and 3.57.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Championship predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Middlesbrough at 44%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Middlesbrough vs Millwall
Line-ups
- 1R. VítekG
- 2C. BrittainD
- 12L. AylingD
- 4A. PhillipsD
- 30Neto BorgesD
- 10A. MorrisM
- 6S. BerhalterM
- 11A. Cozier-DuberryM
- 8R. McGreeM
- 9T. ConwayM
- 7W. LankshearF
- 14M. Peart-HarrisM
- 21R. PukštasM
- 13D. StrelecF
- 16J. SarmientoF
- 17M. ArfstenD
- 31S. BrynnG
- 3S. ByramD
- 19Leo CastledineM
- 22K. JosephF
- 15M. CrocombeG
- 2J. Osei-TutuD
- 6C. TaylorD
- 5J. CooperD
- 3Zak Norton SturgeD
- 14Jenson MetcalfeM
- 49D. Mazou-SackoM
- 17M. SykesM
- 13L. DykesM
- 10C. NeghliM
- 7T. ArconteF
- 25L. CundleM
- 35Y. IssoufouF
- 16D. KellyM
- 29Z. LovelaceF
- 34F. MarschallG
- 44Alfie MasseyM
- 55Tristan ParkesD
- 12E. BaggottD
- 23D. BatthD
Form going into Middlesbrough vs Millwall
Middlesbrough
All competitions we cover
- W4-3Norwich12 September 2026
- W1-0away to QPR5 September 2026
- D1-1away to Burnley2 September 2026
- W3-1West Brom29 August 2026
- L1-2away to Blackburn22 August 2026
Millwall
All competitions we cover
- L1-3away to Blackburn12 September 2026
- W4-0Bolton5 September 2026
- L0-3Wrexham2 September 2026
- L1-5away to Southampton29 August 2026
- W3-0Norwich22 August 2026
What these results say
- Middlesbrough scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Middlesbrough conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Middlesbrough.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Millwall had three goals or more.
- Millwall scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Middlesbrough | 15 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 30 | 19 | +11 | 29 |
| 16 | Millwall | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 23 | 27 | -4 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Middlesbrough vs Millwall
- 3 April 2026Middlesbrough 1–2 MillwallChampionship
- 16 August 2025Millwall 0–3 MiddlesbroughChampionship
- 12 April 2025Millwall 1–0 MiddlesbroughChampionship
- 14 December 2024Middlesbrough 1–0 MillwallChampionship
- 13 January 2024Millwall 1–3 MiddlesbroughChampionship
Leading scorers: Middlesbrough and Millwall
Middlesbrough
GoalsAssists
- W. Lankshear130
Millwall
No player in Championship's leading scorers — 23 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Middlesbrough and Millwall drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Middlesbrough at 44% and given a draw 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Taïryk Arconte 11' for Millwall, Lyndon Dykes 36' for Millwall, Amario Cozier-Duberry 50' for Middlesbrough, will lankshear 61' for Middlesbrough.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.