Bristol City
vs
Lincoln
Championship prediction & result
Final score: Bristol City 0-1 Lincoln.
Before kick-off the model made it 38% Bristol City, 30% draw, 32% Lincoln — fair odds of 2.63, 3.33 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Bristol City 1.42, Lincoln 1.21.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%, under 2.5: 51%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Model insights: Bristol City vs Lincoln
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Bristol City at 38% here. Across 2477 settled matches, 1764 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Bristol City vs Lincoln
Line-ups
- 1S. TickleG
- 21Rio CardinesD
- 16R. DickieD
- 2L. EissatD
- 3C. PringD
- 12J. KnightM
- 27G. YahM
- 17J. WallaceM
- 10S. TwineM
- 7Y. HirakawaM
- 9L. TolajF
- 4A. RandellM
- 19G. TannerD
- 45E. AdebayoF
- 5R. AtkinsonD
- 23D. BallardF
- 11S. BellF
- 40B. CollinsG
- 38N. EileD
- 20S. GreenwoodM
- 1G. WickensG
- 25D. ElereweD
- 15S. BradleyD
- 6R. TowlerD
- 16D. JefferiesM
- 24I. VarfolomeevM
- 14C. McGrandlesM
- 3A. ReachM
- 18B. HouseM
- 27C. OgbeneM
- 34F. DraperF
- 4A. CoubișD
- 46J. GauciG
- 7R. HackettM
- 26Y. KonakM
- 11M. LadefogedF
- 19I. OlaofeF
- 33D. OyegokeD
- 17R. StreetF
- 8T. BaylissM
Form going into Bristol City vs Lincoln
Bristol City
- L1-4away to Southampton12 September 2026
- W2-1away to Burnley5 September 2026
- W3-1away to Preston1 September 2026
- W2-1Portsmouth29 August 2026
Lincoln
- W1-0away to Preston12 September 2026
- D1-1Southampton5 September 2026
- D0-0Blackburn1 September 2026
- W1-0away to Bolton29 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Bristol City | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 10 |
| 8 | Lincoln | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Bristol City vs Lincoln
- 8 November 2022Bristol City 1–3 LincolnLeague Cup
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.42 goals for Bristol City and 1.21 for Lincoln; the game produced 0 and 1.
Goals
Scorers, in order: F. Draper 53' (Lincoln).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1168 correct results out of 2477 settled predictions (47%), with 234 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Bristol City the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Bristol City against 1.21 for Lincoln. Bristol City's attack/defence rating is 0.71/1.37 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.73/1.23 for Lincoln.