Ironi Tiberias
vs
Hapoel Jerusalem
Ligat Ha'al prediction & result
Final score: Ironi Tiberias 2-2 Hapoel Jerusalem.
Before kick-off the model made it 44% Ironi Tiberias, 30% draw, 26% Hapoel Jerusalem — fair odds of 2.27, 3.33 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Ironi Tiberias 1.52, Hapoel Jerusalem 0.94.
Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 44%, under 2.5: 56%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Model insights: Ironi Tiberias vs Hapoel Jerusalem
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Ironi Tiberias at 44% here. Across 2477 settled matches, 1116 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Ironi Tiberias vs Hapoel Jerusalem
Line-ups
- 22I. SharonG
- 30M. BadjieD
- 17R. UngerD
- 37O. BačoD
- 13Z. MorganD
- 14G. SankerD
- 8A. CohenM
- 18E. ShamirM
- 23C. KouakouM
- 12Ghanam CaseF
- 84N. GbambléF
- 55Gons Abu NigmaG
- 1G. AmosG
- 11S. FarhudF
- 5N. ChenD
- 19G. Ma'atukD
- 99A. MiranyanF
- 16Bar·NuhiM
- 21Yarin SerdalM
- 77A. YehudaF
- 55N. ZamirG
- 16O. AgvadishD
- 4Y. LaishD
- 3N. MalmudD
- 20O. NadirD
- 7O. AlmagorM
- 91C. TiéhiM
- 14O. AbuhavM
- 25A. IdokoM
- 17Abdulsalam SaniF
- 33I. DaphahF
- 23Nati ShafrauM
- 18L. MizrachiD
- 8I. MadmonM
- 22T. HaimovichD
- 1B. Gordin AnbaryG
- 11Y. DistalfeldM
- 26I. CohenD
- 9E. ChilufyaF
- 19N. VrasanaF
Form going into Ironi Tiberias vs Hapoel Jerusalem
Ironi Tiberias
- W2-1away to Maccabi Petah Tikva5 September 2026
- L0-2away to Ironi Kiryat Shmona29 August 2026
- W1-0Hapoel Petah Tikva22 August 2026
Hapoel Jerusalem
- W4-2Ironi Kiryat Shmona5 September 2026
- L0-1away to Hapoel Petah Tikva29 August 2026
- L2-5Maccabi Tel Aviv23 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligat Ha'al table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Ironi Tiberias | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 1 |
| 9 | Hapoel Jerusalem | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Ironi Tiberias vs Hapoel Jerusalem
- 15 September 2026Ironi Tiberias 2–2 Hapoel JerusalemLigat Ha'al
- 18 May 2026Hapoel Jerusalem 0–2 Ironi TiberiasLigat Ha'al
- 17 January 2026Hapoel Jerusalem 2–0 Ironi TiberiasLigat Ha'al
- 4 October 2025Ironi Tiberias 1–0 Hapoel JerusalemLigat Ha'al
- 3 May 2025Hapoel Jerusalem 3–1 Ironi TiberiasLigat Ha'al
- 1 February 2025Hapoel Jerusalem 4–0 Ironi TiberiasLigat Ha'al
Leading scorers: Ironi Tiberias and Hapoel Jerusalem
Ironi Tiberias
No player in Ligat Ha'al's leading scorers — 5 league goals as a side.
Hapoel Jerusalem
- A. Idoko3 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.52 goals for Ironi Tiberias and 0.94 for Hapoel Jerusalem; the game produced 2 and 2.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Ghanam Case 41' (Ironi Tiberias), N. Vrasana 47' (Hapoel Jerusalem), andrew idoko 77' (Hapoel Jerusalem), Ziv Morgan 90' (Ironi Tiberias).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1168 correct results out of 2477 settled predictions (47%), with 234 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Ironi Tiberias the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Ironi Tiberias against 0.94 for Hapoel Jerusalem. Ironi Tiberias's attack/defence rating is 0.54/1.44 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.54/1.73 for Hapoel Jerusalem.