Ironi Tiberias vs Hapoel Jerusalem Ligat Ha'al prediction & result
Final score: Ironi Tiberias 2-2 Hapoel Jerusalem.
Before kick-off the model made it 46% Ironi Tiberias, 30% draw, 24% Hapoel Jerusalem — fair odds of 2.17, 3.33 and 4.17.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Ironi Tiberias at 46%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Ironi Tiberias vs Hapoel Jerusalem
Line-ups
- 22I. SharonG
- 30M. BadjieD
- 17R. UngerD
- 37O. BačoD
- 13Z. MorganD
- 14G. SankerD
- 8A. CohenM
- 18E. ShamirM
- 23C. KouakouM
- 12Ghanam CaseF
- 84N. GbambléF
- 55Gons Abu NigmaG
- 1G. AmosG
- 11S. FarhudF
- 5N. ChenD
- 19G. Ma'atukD
- 99A. MiranyanF
- 16Bar·NuhiM
- 21Yarin SerdalM
- 77A. YehudaF
- 55N. ZamirG
- 16O. AgvadishD
- 4Y. LaishD
- 3N. MalmudD
- 20O. NadirD
- 7O. AlmagorM
- 91C. TiéhiM
- 14O. AbuhavM
- 25A. IdokoM
- 17Abdulsalam SaniF
- 33I. DaphahF
- 23Nati ShafrauM
- 18L. MizrachiD
- 8I. MadmonM
- 22T. HaimovichD
- 1B. Gordin AnbaryG
- 11Y. DistalfeldM
- 26I. CohenD
- 9E. ChilufyaF
- 19N. VrasanaF
Form going into Ironi Tiberias vs Hapoel Jerusalem
Ironi Tiberias
All competitions we cover
- W2-1away to Maccabi Petah Tikva5 September 2026
- L0-2away to Ironi Kiryat Shmona29 August 2026
Hapoel Jerusalem
All competitions we cover
- W4-2Ironi Kiryat Shmona5 September 2026
- L0-1away to Hapoel Petah Tikva29 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ligat Ha'al table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Ironi Tiberias | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 14 | -4 | 4 |
| 10 | Hapoel Jerusalem | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 16 | 23 | -7 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Ironi Tiberias vs Hapoel Jerusalem
- 18 May 2026Hapoel Jerusalem 0–2 Ironi TiberiasLigat Ha'al
- 17 January 2026Hapoel Jerusalem 2–0 Ironi TiberiasLigat Ha'al
- 4 October 2025Ironi Tiberias 1–0 Hapoel JerusalemLigat Ha'al
- 3 May 2025Hapoel Jerusalem 3–1 Ironi TiberiasLigat Ha'al
- 1 February 2025Hapoel Jerusalem 4–0 Ironi TiberiasLigat Ha'al
Leading scorers: Ironi Tiberias and Hapoel Jerusalem
Ironi Tiberias
No player in Ligat Ha'al's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.
Hapoel Jerusalem
GoalsAssists
- N. Vrasana50
- A. Idoko42
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Ironi Tiberias and Hapoel Jerusalem drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Ironi Tiberias at 46% and given a draw 30%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Ghanam Case 41' for Ironi Tiberias, N. Vrasana 47' for Hapoel Jerusalem, andrew idoko 77' for Hapoel Jerusalem, Ziv Morgan 90+2' for Ironi Tiberias.
How the call on Ironi Tiberias v Hapoel Jerusalem has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 42% / 35% / 23% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 46% / 30% / 24%: the biggest move is the draw, down 5 points.
- Ironi Tiberias win46%▲ +4
- Draw30%▼ −5
- Hapoel Jerusalem win24%▲ +1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.