Alaves vs Valencia La Liga prediction & result
Final score: Alaves 0-1 Valencia.
Before kick-off the model made it 46% Alaves, 29% draw, 25% Valencia — fair odds of 2.17, 3.45 and 4.00.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Alaves at 46%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Alaves vs Valencia
Line-ups
- 1SiveraG
- 14N. TenagliaD
- 16V. KoskiD
- 2N. ValentiniD
- 7Angel PérezM
- 19Pablo IbáñezM
- 8Antonio BlancoM
- 4Denis SuárezM
- 21A. RebbachM
- 11Toni MartínezF
- 15L. BoyéF
- 23C. BenavídezM
- 10Carles AleñáM
- 17JonnyD
- 24Selu DialloM
- 9M. DíazF
- 3YusiD
- 6GuevaraM
- 29Izei HernándezF
- 12Hugo NovoaF
- 1S. DimitrievskiG
- 24Pablo MaffeoD
- 18PepeluD
- 12J. de HaasD
- 14José GayàD
- 33Aaron MayolM
- 2G. RodríguezM
- 23F. UgrinicM
- 8Javi GuerraM
- 7A. DanjumaM
- 9Hugo DuroF
- 21Jesús VázquezD
- 39R. SatoM
- 11Luis RiojaF
- 19Dani RabaF
- 29Alex PanachD
- 27David OtorbiF
- 22Arnau MartínezD
- 10H. ElliottM
- 15A. DiengM
Form going into Alaves vs Valencia
Alaves
All competitions we cover
- L1-2away to Racing Santander12 September 2026
- W5-2Osasuna6 September 2026
- W1-0Villarreal28 August 2026
- D1-1away to Rayo Vallecano20 August 2026
- W3-0Getafe15 August 2026
Valencia
All competitions we cover
- L0-1away to Sevilla11 September 2026
- L0-5Barcelona6 September 2026
- L1-3away to Deportivo La Coruna30 August 2026
- L0-1Real Betis25 August 2026
- D0-0Celta Vigo22 August 2026
What these results say
- Alaves scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Valencia did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Valencia failed to score in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Valencia conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Alaves | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 15 | 17 | -2 | 13 |
| 19 | Valencia | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 8 | 20 | -12 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Alaves vs Valencia
- 8 March 2026Valencia 3–2 AlavesLa Liga
- 20 October 2025Alaves 0–0 ValenciaLa Liga
- 14 May 2025Alaves 1–0 ValenciaLa Liga
- 22 December 2024Valencia 2–2 AlavesLa Liga
- 24 July 2024Valencia 0–1 AlavesFriendlies Clubs
Leading scorers: Alaves and Valencia
Alaves
GoalsAssists
- L. Boyé50
- M. Díaz44
Valencia
No player in La Liga's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Valencia won 1–0 at Alaves. The model had leaned towards a win for Alaves at 46% and given a win for Valencia 25%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goal: Luis Rioja 78' for Valencia.
How the call on Alaves v Valencia has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 44% / 30% / 26% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 10 updates, it read 46% / 29% / 25%: the biggest move is Alaves's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Alaves win46%▲ +2
- Draw29%▼ −1
- Valencia win25%▼ −1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.