Alaves
vs
Valencia
La Liga prediction & result
Final score: Alaves 0-1 Valencia.
Before kick-off the model made it 42% Alaves, 30% draw, 28% Valencia — fair odds of 2.38, 3.33 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Alaves 1.40, Valencia 0.95.
Both teams to score: 47%. Over 2.5 goals: 42%, under 2.5: 58%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Model insights: Alaves vs Valencia
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Alaves at 42% here. Across 2477 settled matches, 1116 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Alaves vs Valencia
Line-ups
- 1SiveraG
- 14N. TenagliaD
- 16V. KoskiD
- 2N. ValentiniD
- 7Angel PérezM
- 19Pablo IbáñezM
- 8Antonio BlancoM
- 4Denis SuárezM
- 21A. RebbachM
- 11Toni MartínezF
- 15L. BoyéF
- 23C. BenavídezM
- 10Carles AleñáM
- 17JonnyD
- 24Selu DialloM
- 9M. DíazF
- 3YusiD
- 6GuevaraM
- 29Izei HernándezF
- 12Hugo NovoaF
- 1S. DimitrievskiG
- 24Pablo MaffeoD
- 18PepeluD
- 12J. de HaasD
- 14José GayàD
- 33Aaron MayolM
- 2G. RodríguezM
- 23F. UgrinicM
- 8Javi GuerraM
- 7A. DanjumaM
- 9Hugo DuroF
- 21Jesús VázquezD
- 39R. SatoM
- 11Luis RiojaF
- 19Dani RabaF
- 29Alex PanachD
- 27David OtorbiF
- 22Arnau MartínezD
- 10H. ElliottM
- 15A. DiengM
Form going into Alaves vs Valencia
Alaves
- L1-2away to Racing Santander12 September 2026
- W5-2Osasuna6 September 2026
- W1-0Villarreal28 August 2026
- D1-1away to Rayo Vallecano20 August 2026
Valencia
- L0-1away to Sevilla11 September 2026
- L0-5Barcelona6 September 2026
- L1-3away to Deportivo La Coruna30 August 2026
- L0-1Real Betis25 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Alaves | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 6 | +5 | 10 |
| 17 | Valencia | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 10 | -8 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Alaves vs Valencia
- 8 March 2026Valencia 3–2 AlavesLa Liga
- 20 October 2025Alaves 0–0 ValenciaLa Liga
- 14 May 2025Alaves 1–0 ValenciaLa Liga
- 22 December 2024Valencia 2–2 AlavesLa Liga
- 24 July 2024Valencia 0–1 AlavesFriendlies Clubs
- 5 May 2024Valencia 0–1 AlavesLa Liga
Leading scorers: Alaves and Valencia
Alaves
- L. Boyé4 goals
- M. Díaz3 goals3 assists
Valencia
No player in La Liga's leading scorers — 2 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.40 goals for Alaves and 0.95 for Valencia; the game produced 0 and 1.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Luis Rioja 78' (Valencia).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1168 correct results out of 2477 settled predictions (47%), with 234 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Alaves the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.4 expected goals for Alaves against 0.95 for Valencia. Alaves's attack/defence rating is 0.97/1.01 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.78/0.89 for Valencia.