Elche
vs
Real Madrid
La Liga prediction & result
Final score: Elche 2-3 Real Madrid.
Before kick-off the model made it 33% Elche, 28% draw, 39% Real Madrid — fair odds of 3.03, 3.57 and 2.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Elche 1.34, Real Madrid 1.56.
Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Model insights: Elche vs Real Madrid
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Real Madrid at 39% here. Across 2477 settled matches, 1764 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Elche vs Real Madrid
Line-ups
- 1M. DituroG
- 2Buba SangaréD
- 5F. RedondoD
- 23Víctor ChustD
- 3R. RevivoD
- 11Germán ValeraM
- 16Martim NetoM
- 8Marc AguadoM
- 12Gonzalo VillarM
- 20Tete MorenteM
- 24A. OsorioF
- 26Matia Barzic GutiérrezD
- 6BigasD
- 10F. BuonanotteM
- 21L. CepedaF
- 19G. DianganaF
- 13Alejandro IturbeG
- 17JosanM
- 18T. LemarM
- 14Fer NiñoF
- 1T. CourtoisG
- 12T. Alexander-ArnoldD
- 16I. KonatéD
- 4D. HuijsenD
- 17Marc CucurellaD
- 8F. ValverdeM
- 14A. TchouaméniM
- 25Y. DiomandeM
- 15A. GülerM
- 7Vinícius JúniorM
- 10Kylian MbappéF
- 20Bernardo SilvaM
- 22A. RüdigerD
- 27Thiago PitarchM
- 13A. LuninG
- 19Carlos EspíF
- 9EndrickF
- 24D. DumfriesD
- 21Brahim DíazM
- 18Álvaro FernándezD
Form going into Elche vs Real Madrid
Elche
- D1-1away to Athletic Club12 September 2026
- L2-3Real Sociedad7 September 2026
- L2-3away to Racing Santander28 August 2026
- L0-5Barcelona23 August 2026
Real Madrid
- W4-1Rayo Vallecano12 September 2026
- L0-1away to Real Betis4 September 2026
- W4-0Malaga30 August 2026
- W4-1Real Sociedad26 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Elche | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 16 | -8 | 2 |
| 2 | Real Madrid | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 6 | +11 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Elche vs Real Madrid
- 14 March 2026Real Madrid 4–1 ElcheLa Liga
- 23 November 2025Elche 2–2 Real MadridLa Liga
- 15 February 2023Real Madrid 4–0 ElcheLa Liga
- 19 October 2022Elche 0–3 Real MadridLa Liga
- 23 January 2022Real Madrid 2–2 ElcheLa Liga
- 20 January 2022Elche 1–2 Real MadridCopa del Rey
Leading scorers: Elche and Real Madrid
Elche
- Fer Niño3 goals
Real Madrid
- Kylian Mbappé7 goals2 assists
- J. Bellingham3 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.34 goals for Elche and 1.56 for Real Madrid; the game produced 2 and 3.
A gap that size between expected and actual goals is normal in a single match — it is the reason we publish probabilities rather than predictions, and why the record below is measured over hundreds of games rather than one.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Matías Dituro 25' (Real Madrid), Kylian Mbappé 33' (Real Madrid), Abiel Alessio Osorio 71' (Elche), Fernando Niño Rodríguez 83' (Elche), Carlos Espí 90' (Real Madrid).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1168 correct results out of 2477 settled predictions (47%), with 234 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Real Madrid the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Elche against 1.56 for Real Madrid. Elche's attack/defence rating is 1.04/1.01 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.28/0.79 for Real Madrid.