Molde vs Aalesund Eliteserien prediction & result
Final score: Molde 1-2 Aalesund.
Before kick-off the model made it 49% Molde, 27% draw, 24% Aalesund — fair odds of 2.04, 3.70 and 4.17.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Molde at 49%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Molde vs Aalesund
Line-ups
- 22A. PosiadałaG
- 25M. LinnesD
- 6N. ØdegårdD
- 27F. DahlD
- 26S. KabiniD
- 10E. BreivikM
- 30D. DagaM
- 24Trent Toure Kone DohertyM
- 23S. GranaasM
- 21O. Spiten-NysæterM
- 9J. AbdulaiF
- 28V. BenderM
- 17M. Møller DæhliM
- 16S. KilenF
- 12P. LervikG
- 20K. LonebuF
- 8M. LøvikD
- 52D. SylteD
- 11C. Zady SeryF
- 55Ulrik Langlie SkredeD
- 1Luca PodlechG
- 7K. NessøD
- 2M. AndresenD
- 28D. MbackeD
- 5A. Hammer KjelsenD
- 14U. CharlesD
- 21M. ChristensenM
- 18E. HagenM
- 15E. OsenbrochM
- 8I. SkotheimF
- 27H. M. ReedF
- 4S. HaramD
- 19S. KartumM
- 30S. K. KnutsenF
- 26T. LarsenG
- 17E. MyrlidF
- 16J. ØrsahlD
- 25U. SyversenD
- 38T. LeikangerM
- 22E. EngqvistD
Form going into Molde vs Aalesund
Molde
All competitions we cover
- W5-1away to Ham-Kam13 September 2026
- W2-0KFUM Oslo6 September 2026
- W4-3away to Valerenga30 August 2026
- W3-2Tromso16 August 2026
- L1-2away to Kristiansund BK9 August 2026
Aalesund
All competitions we cover
- L1-2away to KFUM Oslo13 September 2026
- W2-0Start4 September 2026
- L1-2away to Viking30 August 2026
- D5-5Valerenga16 August 2026
- D1-1away to Ham-Kam9 August 2026
What these results say
- Molde scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Molde won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Molde conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Aalesund scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Aalesund failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Aalesund conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Eliteserien table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Molde | 26 | 13 | 5 | 8 | 64 | 44 | +20 | 44 |
| 15 | Aalesund | 26 | 5 | 9 | 12 | 45 | 60 | -15 | 24 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Molde vs Aalesund
- 11 July 2026Aalesund 2–2 MoldeEliteserien
- 27 February 2026Molde 4–1 AalesundFriendlies Clubs
- 16 May 2023Aalesund 3–1 MoldeEliteserien
- 3 May 2023Molde 3–0 AalesundEliteserien
Leading scorers: Molde and Aalesund
Molde
GoalsAssists
- K. Lonebu152
- E. Breivik1010
- E. Hestad82
Aalesund
GoalsAssists
- M. Christensen116
- H. M. Reed83
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Aalesund won 2–1 at Molde. The model had leaned towards a win for Molde at 49% and given a win for Aalesund 24%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Mathias Christensen 7' for Aalesund, Isak Gabriel Skotheim 44' for Aalesund, Kristian Lonebu 82' for Molde.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.