Motor Lublin
vs
Gornik Zabrze
Ekstraklasa prediction
Our model says: Motor Lublin 1–2 Gornik Zabrze
The model makes it 35% Motor Lublin, 29% draw, 36% Gornik Zabrze — fair odds of 2.86, 3.45 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Motor Lublin 1.37, Gornik Zabrze 1.40.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Motor Lublin vs Gornik Zabrze
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 8 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 3 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | |||||
| 5 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are Motor Lublin wins, grey are draws, red are Gornik Zabrze wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Gornik Zabrze at 36% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1767 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Motor Lublin vs Gornik Zabrze
Motor Lublin
- L1-2away to Raków Częstochowa11 September 2026
- L2-3Legia Warszawa5 September 2026
- L0-2Piast Gliwice29 August 2026
- D1-1away to Korona Kielce22 August 2026
- W1-0GKS Katowice16 August 2026
Gornik Zabrze
- W2-0away to Korona Kielce15 September 2026
- W2-1Lech Poznan12 September 2026
- W1-0away to Cracovia Krakow6 September 2026
- W2-1away to Raków Częstochowa3 September 2026
- L2-3GKS Katowice30 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Motor Lublin | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 15 | -6 | 5 |
| 1 | Gornik Zabrze | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 8 | +8 | 21 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Motor Lublin vs Gornik Zabrze
- 8 March 2026Motor Lublin 0–0 Gornik ZabrzeEkstraklasa
- 30 August 2025Gornik Zabrze 0–1 Motor LublinEkstraklasa
- 15 March 2025Gornik Zabrze 4–0 Motor LublinEkstraklasa
- 13 September 2024Motor Lublin 1–0 Gornik ZabrzeEkstraklasa
Leading scorers: Motor Lublin and Gornik Zabrze
Motor Lublin
- K. Czubak5 goals
Gornik Zabrze
- Peter4 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Motor Lublin carry a model rating of 6.55 against 6.71 for Gornik Zabrze. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.37 goals for Motor Lublin and 1.40 for Gornik Zabrze. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Motor Lublin rate 0.78 in attack and 1.43 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Gornik Zabrze rate 0.81 and 1.08.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Motor Lublin a 0.1% chance of the title and Gornik Zabrze 38.3%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1172 correct results out of 2485 settled predictions (47%), with 236 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Gornik Zabrze the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Motor Lublin against 1.4 for Gornik Zabrze. Motor Lublin's attack/defence rating is 0.78/1.43 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.81/1.08 for Gornik Zabrze.