19 September 2026, 12:45 UTC

Korona Kielce vs Raków Częstochowa Ekstraklasa prediction & result

Exbud Arena, Kielce
Full time3 – 2

Final score: Korona Kielce 3-2 Raków Częstochowa.

Before kick-off the model made it 45% Korona Kielce, 27% draw, 28% Raków Częstochowa — fair odds of 2.22, 3.70 and 3.57.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Korona Kielce at 45%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Korona Kielce96%Draw4%Raków Częstochowa0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

kamil jakubczyk
7'
•Wiktor Długosz
18'
⚽Mariusz Stępiński (pen)
20'
⚽Camilo Menaassist: Wiktor Długosz
33'
56'
Tomasz Pienko
58'
⚽Lamine Diaby Fadigaassist: Oskar Repka
⚽Mariusz Stępiński (pen)
62'
67'
🔁Arvid Brorssonout: Bogdan·Mircetic
67'
🔁Patryk Makuchout: Adam Basse
68'
🔁Tomasz Pienkoout: Marko Perović
🔁Wiktor Długoszout: Norbert barczak
70'
🔁Camilo Menaout: Morgan Faßbender
70'
🔁Mariusz Stępińskiout: Daniel Bak
80'
80'
🔁Mahir Emreliout: Isak Brusberg
80'
🔁Marko Bulatout: Adin molnar
82'
⚽Bogdan·Mircetic
Morgan Faßbender
90+1'
🔁Ondrej Lingrout: Simon Gustafsson
90+2'
90+4'
Bogdan·Mircetic

Match stats — Korona Kielce vs Raków Częstochowa

42%Possession58%
22Shots19
10On target6
7Corners5

Line-ups

Korona Kielce 4-5-1
  • 1X. DziekońskiG
  • 71W. DługoszD
  • 23S. RubežićD
  • 2A. MosórD
  • 6M. PięczekD
  • 30C. MenaM
  • 35Kamil JakubczykM
  • 32O. LingrM
  • 18P. HellebrandM
  • 19M. AmeyawM
  • 14M. StępińskiF
Substitutes
  • 99Daniel BakF
  • 67N. BarczakD
  • 7D. BłanikM
  • 21K. CiszekD
  • 9S. DavidovićM
  • 22M. FaßbenderF
  • 86Simon GustafsonM
  • 87R. MamlaG
  • 10NonoM
Coach: J. Zielinski
Raków Częstochowa 3-4-3
  • 1K. TrelowskiG
  • 3A. BrorssonD
  • 25B. RacovițanD
  • 4S. SvarnasD
  • 20Jean CarlosM
  • 6O. RepkaM
  • 5M. BulatM
  • 21T. PieńkoM
  • 80L. Diaby-FadigaF
  • 11M. EmreliF
  • 9P. MakuchF
Substitutes
  • 99Adam BasseF
  • 19N. ZätterströmD
  • 39I. BrusbergF
  • 77D. DebohiD
  • 71T. KarićG
  • 15O. KwiatkowskiM
  • 44B. MirčetićM
  • 88A. MolnarM
  • 36M. PerovićM
Coach: T. Kaczmarek

Form going into Korona Kielce vs Raków Częstochowa

Korona Kielce

All competitions we cover

  • W2-1away to Slask Wroclaw12 September 2026
  • D1-1Wisla Krakow5 September 2026
  • W2-0away to Wisla Plock28 August 2026
  • D1-1Motor Lublin22 August 2026
  • W2-1away to Widzew Łódź15 August 2026

Raków Częstochowa

All competitions we cover

  • W2-1Motor Lublin11 September 2026
  • L0-1away to Lech Poznan6 September 2026
  • L1-2Gornik Zabrze3 September 2026
  • L2-5Jagiellonia30 August 2026
  • L2-3HNK Hajduk Split27 August 2026

What these results say

  • Korona Kielce went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • Korona Kielce scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Korona Kielce conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Raków Częstochowa conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Raków Częstochowa failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Raków Częstochowa scored in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Ekstraklasa table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
11Korona Kielce145361421-718
16Raków Częstochowa1440102331-812

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Korona Kielce vs Raków Częstochowa

  • 8 May 2026Raków Częstochowa 2–0 Korona KielceEkstraklasa
  • 9 November 2025Korona Kielce 1–4 Raków CzęstochowaEkstraklasa
  • 17 May 2025Korona Kielce 1–1 Raków CzęstochowaEkstraklasa
  • 24 November 2024Raków Częstochowa 1–1 Korona KielceEkstraklasa
  • 13 March 2024Korona Kielce 0–2 Raków CzęstochowaEkstraklasa

Leading scorers: Korona Kielce and Raków Częstochowa

Korona Kielce

GoalsAssists

  • M. Stępiński60

Raków Częstochowa

GoalsAssists

  • P. Makuch81

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Korona Kielce beat Raków Częstochowa 3–2. The model had made a win for Korona Kielce its most likely outcome, at 45%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Mariusz Stępiński (penalty) 20' for Korona Kielce, Camilo Mena 33' for Korona Kielce, Lamine Diaby Fadiga 58' for Raków Częstochowa, Mariusz Stępiński (penalty) 62' for Korona Kielce, Bogdan·Mircetic 82' for Raków Częstochowa.

How the call on Korona Kielce v Raków Częstochowa has moved

First published on 5 Sep at 40% / 30% / 30% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 8 updates, it read 45% / 27% / 28%: the biggest move is Korona Kielce's chance of winning, up 5 points.

  1. Korona Kielce win45%▲ +5
  2. Draw27%▼ −3
  3. Raków Częstochowa win28%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.