Clausura - 20 · 23 November 2026, 23:15 UTC

Nacional Asuncion vs Cerro Porteno Division Profesional - Clausura prediction

Estadio Arsenio Erico

Our model says: Nacional Asuncion 1–0 Cerro Porteno

The model makes it 46% Nacional Asuncion, 30% draw, 24% Cerro Porteno — fair odds of 2.17, 3.33 and 4.17.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (14%).

Expected goals: Nacional Asuncion 1.39, Cerro Porteno 0.86.

Both teams to score: 44%. Over 2.5 goals: 39%, under 2.5: 61%.

Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,958 settled matches.

Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Nacional Asuncion's rating is built from 41 Paraguayan Primera División Clausura matches and Cerro Porteno's from 41, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.

Key facts

  • Nacional Asuncion are 4th on 32 points from 19 games; Cerro Porteno are 7th on 28 points from 19 games — Division Profesional - Clausura.
  • Nacional Asuncion have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat away to Libertad Asuncion.
  • Cerro Porteno have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Deportivo Recoleta.
  • Last 6 meetings: Cerro Porteno 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 7 September 2026, ended Cerro Porteno 1–0 Nacional Asuncion.

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Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Nacional Asuncion vs Cerro Porteno

44%
Both teams to score
39%
Over 2.5 goals
61%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Nacional Asuncion win Draw Cerro Porteno win
  1. 1–014%
  2. 1–113%
  3. 0–011%
  4. 2–010%
  5. 2–19%
  6. 0–18%
  7. 1–25%

Scores read Nacional Asuncion first; the other scorelines share the remaining 29%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Nacional Asuncion at 46%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Nacional Asuncion vs Cerro Porteno

Nacional Asuncion

Division Profesional - Clausura

  • L0-3away to Libertad Asuncion7 November 2026
  • L0-2Club Sp. San Lorenzo3 November 2026
  • W3-0away to Sportivo Luqueno31 October 2026
  • L0-1Sportivo Trinidense24 October 2026
  • W2-0away to Club Guarani17 October 2026

Cerro Porteno

Division Profesional - Clausura

  • D1-1Deportivo Recoleta8 November 2026
  • W1-0away to Libertad Asuncion4 November 2026
  • L0-2Olimpia1 November 2026
  • W3-1away to Club Sp. San Lorenzo25 October 2026
  • D2-2Sportivo Ameliano18 October 2026

What these results say

  • Cerro Porteno scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Cerro Porteno conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Division Profesional - Clausura table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4Nacional Asuncion199552614+1232
7Cerro Porteno198472520+528

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Nacional Asuncion

Chance to finish in the top four · 82% today

Win 95%
Draw 79%
Defeat 57%

Cerro Porteno

Chance to finish in the top four · 6% today

Win 22%
Draw 3%
Defeat <1%

From our Division Profesional - Clausura season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Nacional Asuncion vs Cerro Porteno

  • 7 September 2026Cerro Porteno 1–0 Nacional AsuncionDivision Profesional - Clausura
  • 11 April 2026Nacional Asuncion 0–0 Cerro PortenoDivision Profesional - Apertura
  • 15 February 2026Cerro Porteno 0–2 Nacional AsuncionDivision Profesional - Apertura
  • 27 October 2025Nacional Asuncion 1–2 Cerro PortenoDivision Profesional - Clausura
  • 8 August 2025Cerro Porteno 0–0 Nacional AsuncionDivision Profesional - Clausura
  • 15 April 2025Nacional Asuncion 1–3 Cerro PortenoDivision Profesional - Apertura

Leading scorers: Nacional Asuncion and Cerro Porteno

Nacional Asuncion

GoalsAssists

  • H. Benítez66
  • I. Valdez61

Cerro Porteno

GoalsAssists

  • P. Vegetti80
  • J. Morel50
  • D. Rodríguez45

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

How the call on Nacional Asuncion v Cerro Porteno has moved

First published on 4 Nov at 51% / 28% / 21% (home / draw / away). After 3 updates it reads 46% / 30% / 24%: the biggest move is Nacional Asuncion's chance of winning, down 5 points.

  1. Nacional Asuncion win46%▼ −5
  2. Draw30%▲ +2
  3. Cerro Porteno win24%▲ +3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Nacional Asuncion Cerro Porteno
0.65 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.66
1.08 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.31
1.39 Model expected goals (this match) 0.86

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Nacional Asuncion the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Nacional Asuncion against 0.86 for Cerro Porteno. Nacional Asuncion's attack/defence rating is 0.65/1.08 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.66/1.31 for Cerro Porteno.

How the model reaches 46% for Nacional Asuncion to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Nacional Asuncion to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides takes away 2 points, Nacional Asuncion's ratings add 1 point and Cerro Porteno's ratings add 3 points, which lands on the published 46%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage44%+8
  3. Both sides at this match's level42%−2
  4. Nacional Asuncion's ratings43%+1
  5. Cerro Porteno's ratings46%+3

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

Nacional AsuncionCerro Porteno
19Matches19
9W 5D 5LRecord8W 4D 7L
26 1.4 per gameGoals scored25 1.3 per game
14 0.7 per gameGoals conceded20 1.1 per game
10 of 19Clean sheets6 of 19
5 of 19Failed to score3 of 19
1 of 2Penalties scored1 of 5
35 1.8 per gameYellow cards26 1.4 per game
3Red cards1
4-1-4-1 11×Usual shape4-1-4-1 8×

Nacional Asuncion at home · Cerro Porteno away

9Played9
5W 2D 2LRecord4W 1D 4L
12–4Goals for – against14–10
6 of 9Clean sheets2 of 9

League matches only, Division Profesional - Clausura, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Division Profesional - Clausura matches this season: Nacional Asuncion 19, Cerro Porteno 19.

Nacional Asuncion scored 644526
Cerro Porteno conceded 322643
Cerro Porteno scored 728142
Nacional Asuncion conceded 111441

Cerro Porteno score most often in the 31–45 minute window (8 goals); Nacional Asuncion have let in 1 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.