Clausura - 20 · 20 November 2026, 20:30 UTC

Sportivo Ameliano vs Sportivo Luqueno Division Profesional - Clausura prediction

Our model says: Sportivo Ameliano 2–1 Sportivo Luqueno

The model makes it 41% Sportivo Ameliano, 25% draw, 34% Sportivo Luqueno — fair odds of 2.44, 4.00 and 2.94.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

Expected goals: Sportivo Ameliano 1.75, Sportivo Luqueno 1.55.

Both teams to score: 66%. Over 2.5 goals: 64%, under 2.5: 36%.

Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,958 settled matches.

Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Sportivo Ameliano's rating is built from 41 Paraguayan Primera División Clausura matches and Sportivo Luqueno's from 41, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.

Key facts

  • Sportivo Ameliano are 9th on 19 points from 19 games; Sportivo Luqueno are 8th on 22 points from 19 games — Division Profesional - Clausura.
  • Sportivo Ameliano have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat away to Sportivo Trinidense.
  • Sportivo Luqueno have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-0 win at home to 2 de Mayo.
  • Last 6 meetings: Sportivo Ameliano 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 6 September 2026, ended Sportivo Luqueno 1–2 Sportivo Ameliano.

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Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Sportivo Ameliano vs Sportivo Luqueno

66%
Both teams to score
64%
Over 2.5 goals
36%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Sportivo Ameliano win Draw Sportivo Luqueno win
  1. 1–111%
  2. 2–19%
  3. 1–28%
  4. 2–27%
  5. 1–06%
  6. 2–06%
  7. 0–15%

Scores read Sportivo Ameliano first; the other scorelines share the remaining 48%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Sportivo Ameliano at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Sportivo Ameliano vs Sportivo Luqueno

Sportivo Ameliano

Division Profesional - Clausura

  • L0-3away to Sportivo Trinidense8 November 2026
  • L0-1Club Guarani4 November 2026
  • L0-3away to Deportivo Recoleta31 October 2026
  • L2-3Olimpia25 October 2026
  • D2-2away to Cerro Porteno18 October 2026

Sportivo Luqueno

Division Profesional - Clausura

  • W3-02 de Mayo9 November 2026
  • W5-0away to Rubio NU5 November 2026
  • L0-3Nacional Asuncion31 October 2026
  • L0-1away to Libertad Asuncion23 October 2026
  • W3-2Club Sp. San Lorenzo18 October 2026

What these results say

  • Sportivo Ameliano did not win any of these 5 matches.
  • Sportivo Ameliano conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Sportivo Ameliano had three goals or more.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Sportivo Luqueno had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Division Profesional - Clausura table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
9Sportivo Ameliano194781928-919
8Sportivo Luqueno1971112533-822

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Sportivo Ameliano

Chance to finish in the bottom three · 23% today

Win 5%
Draw 24%
Defeat 42%

Sportivo Luqueno

Chance to finish in the bottom three · 8% today

Win 0%
Draw 3%
Defeat 16%

From our Division Profesional - Clausura season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Sportivo Ameliano vs Sportivo Luqueno

  • 6 September 2026Sportivo Luqueno 1–2 Sportivo AmelianoDivision Profesional - Clausura
  • 5 April 2026Sportivo Ameliano 2–2 Sportivo LuquenoDivision Profesional - Apertura
  • 6 February 2026Sportivo Luqueno 0–1 Sportivo AmelianoDivision Profesional - Apertura
  • 2 November 2025Sportivo Luqueno 0–1 Sportivo AmelianoDivision Profesional - Clausura
  • 16 August 2025Sportivo Ameliano 0–1 Sportivo LuquenoDivision Profesional - Clausura
  • 2 June 2025Sportivo Luqueno 0–0 Sportivo AmelianoDivision Profesional - Apertura

Leading scorers: Sportivo Ameliano and Sportivo Luqueno

Sportivo Ameliano

GoalsAssists

  • C. Ocampos53
  • R. Torales51
  • E. Moreira50

Sportivo Luqueno

GoalsAssists

  • I. Maggi52

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

Where the model differs from the table

The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Sportivo Luqueno (eighth, with Sportivo Ameliano ninth), while our numbers lean to Sportivo Ameliano. Sportivo Ameliano rate 0.54 in attack and 1.84 in defence, Sportivo Luqueno 0.70 and 1.99 (lower is better in defence), so Sportivo Ameliano have been the better side in defence on recent expected goals, which the 3-point gap in the table does not yet show. Playing at home adds the rest.

How the call on Sportivo Ameliano v Sportivo Luqueno has moved

First published on 4 Nov at 53% / 23% / 24% (home / draw / away). After 4 updates it reads 41% / 25% / 34%: the biggest move is Sportivo Ameliano's chance of winning, down 12 points.

  1. Sportivo Ameliano win41%▼ −12
  2. Draw25%▲ +2
  3. Sportivo Luqueno win34%▲ +10

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Sportivo Ameliano Sportivo Luqueno
0.54 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.7
1.84 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.99
1.75 Model expected goals (this match) 1.55

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Sportivo Ameliano the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Sportivo Ameliano against 1.55 for Sportivo Luqueno. Sportivo Ameliano's attack/defence rating is 0.54/1.84 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.7/1.99 for Sportivo Luqueno.

Sportivo Ameliano carry a model rating of 6.24 against 6.34 for Sportivo Luqueno. A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

How the model reaches 41% for Sportivo Ameliano to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Sportivo Ameliano to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides adds 2 points, Sportivo Ameliano's ratings take away 3 points and Sportivo Luqueno's ratings take away 2 points, which lands on the published 41%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage44%+8
  3. Both sides at this match's level46%+2
  4. Sportivo Ameliano's ratings43%−3
  5. Sportivo Luqueno's ratings41%−2

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

Sportivo AmelianoSportivo Luqueno
19Matches19
4W 7D 8LRecord7W 1D 11L
19 1.0 per gameGoals scored25 1.3 per game
28 1.5 per gameGoals conceded33 1.7 per game
2 of 19Clean sheets4 of 19
5 of 19Failed to score7 of 19
4 of 4Penalties scored2 of 3
41 2.2 per gameYellow cards35 1.8 per game
4Red cards1
4-1-4-1 13×Usual shape4-1-4-1 7×

Sportivo Ameliano at home · Sportivo Luqueno away

9Played9
3W 2D 4LRecord3W 1D 5L
10–12Goals for – against13–15
2 of 9Clean sheets2 of 9

League matches only, Division Profesional - Clausura, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Division Profesional - Clausura matches this season: Sportivo Ameliano 19, Sportivo Luqueno 19.

Sportivo Ameliano scored 014538
Sportivo Luqueno conceded 719647

Sportivo Ameliano score most often in the 76–90 minute window (8 goals); Sportivo Luqueno have let in 7 there.

Sportivo Luqueno scored 035258
Sportivo Ameliano conceded 217754

Sportivo Luqueno score most often in the 76–90 minute window (8 goals); Sportivo Ameliano have let in 4 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.