Deportivo Recoleta
vs
Club Guarani
Division Profesional - Clausura prediction
Our model says: Deportivo Recoleta 0–1 Club Guarani
The model makes it 32% Deportivo Recoleta, 29% draw, 39% Club Guarani — fair odds of 3.13, 3.45 and 2.56.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Deportivo Recoleta 1.20, Club Guarani 1.38.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 48%, under 2.5: 52%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,327 settled matches.
Edge to Club Guarani: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Deportivo Recoleta's rating is built from 41 Paraguayan Primera División Clausura matches and Club Guarani's from 41, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Deportivo Recoleta are 11th on 16 points from 19 games; Club Guarani are 5th on 31 points from 19 games — Division Profesional - Clausura.
- Deportivo Recoleta have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Cerro Porteno.
- Club Guarani have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-3 defeat at home to Olimpia.
- Last 6 meetings: Club Guarani 5 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 7 September 2026, ended Club Guarani 2–0 Deportivo Recoleta.
More Paraguayan Primera División Clausura predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Deportivo Recoleta vs Club Guarani
Has the model earned this number?
Club Guarani at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Deportivo Recoleta vs Club Guarani
Deportivo Recoleta
Division Profesional - Clausura
- D1-1away to Cerro Porteno8 November 2026
- L1-4away to Olimpia5 November 2026
- W3-0Sportivo Ameliano31 October 2026
- D1-1away to 2 de Mayo24 October 2026
- W1-0Rubio NU16 October 2026
Club Guarani
Division Profesional - Clausura
- L1-3Olimpia7 November 2026
- W1-0away to Sportivo Ameliano4 November 2026
- W1-02 de Mayo30 October 2026
- W2-0away to Rubio NU23 October 2026
- L0-2Nacional Asuncion17 October 2026
What these results say
- Deportivo Recoleta scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Club Guarani scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Club Guarani had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Division Profesional - Clausura table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Deportivo Recoleta | 19 | 4 | 4 | 11 | 21 | 33 | -12 | 16 |
| 5 | Club Guarani | 19 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 21 | 17 | +4 | 31 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Deportivo Recoleta
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 82% today
Club Guarani
Chance to finish in the top four · 27% today
From our Division Profesional - Clausura season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Deportivo Recoleta vs Club Guarani
- 7 September 2026Club Guarani 2–0 Deportivo RecoletaDivision Profesional - Clausura
- 23 May 2026Deportivo Recoleta 2–1 Club GuaraniDivision Profesional - Apertura
- 18 March 2026Club Guarani 3–1 Deportivo RecoletaDivision Profesional - Apertura
- 18 October 2025Club Guarani 2–1 Deportivo RecoletaDivision Profesional - Clausura
- 4 August 2025Deportivo Recoleta 2–3 Club GuaraniDivision Profesional - Clausura
- 2 May 2025Deportivo Recoleta 0–3 Club GuaraniDivision Profesional - Apertura
Leading scorers: Deportivo Recoleta and Club Guarani
Deportivo Recoleta
GoalsAssists
- A. Wlk131
- A. González51
Club Guarani
No player in Division Profesional - Clausura's leading scorers — 21 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Club Guarani the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Deportivo Recoleta against 1.38 for Club Guarani. Deportivo Recoleta's attack/defence rating is 0.61/1.88 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.61/1.21 for Club Guarani.
How the model reaches 39% for Club Guarani to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Club Guarani to win. Then home advantage takes away 7 points, Deportivo Recoleta's ratings add 5 points and Club Guarani's ratings add 5 points, which lands on the published 39%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage29%−7
- Deportivo Recoleta's ratings34%+5
- Club Guarani's ratings39%+5
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Deportivo Recoleta at home · Club Guarani away
League matches only, Division Profesional - Clausura, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Division Profesional - Clausura matches this season: Deportivo Recoleta 19, Club Guarani 19.
Deportivo Recoleta score most often in the 46–60 minute window (6 goals); Club Guarani have let in 5 there.
Club Guarani score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Deportivo Recoleta have let in 9 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Deportivo Recoleta
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.