Olimpia
vs
Sportivo Trinidense
Division Profesional - Clausura prediction
Our model says: Olimpia 2–1 Sportivo Trinidense
The model makes it 53% Olimpia, 25% draw, 22% Sportivo Trinidense — fair odds of 1.89, 4.00 and 4.55.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Olimpia 1.93, Sportivo Trinidense 1.06.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%, under 2.5: 43%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,154 settled matches.
Edge to Olimpia: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Olimpia's rating is built from 41 Paraguayan Primera División Clausura matches and Sportivo Trinidense's from 41, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Olimpia are top on 42 points from 19 games; Sportivo Trinidense are 2nd on 34 points from 19 games — Division Profesional - Clausura.
- Olimpia are unbeaten in their last 5 games (5 won), most recently a 3-1 win away to Club Guarani.
- Sportivo Trinidense have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-0 win at home to Sportivo Ameliano.
- Last 6 meetings: Olimpia 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 6 September 2026, ended Sportivo Trinidense 1–2 Olimpia.
More Paraguayan Primera División Clausura predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Olimpia vs Sportivo Trinidense
Has the model earned this number?
Olimpia at 53%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Olimpia vs Sportivo Trinidense
Olimpia
Division Profesional - Clausura
- W3-1away to Club Guarani7 November 2026
- W4-1Deportivo Recoleta5 November 2026
- W2-0away to Cerro Porteno1 November 2026
- W3-2away to Sportivo Ameliano25 October 2026
- W3-02 de Mayo17 October 2026
Sportivo Trinidense
Division Profesional - Clausura
- W3-0Sportivo Ameliano8 November 2026
- D0-0away to 2 de Mayo3 November 2026
- L2-4Rubio NU30 October 2026
- W1-0away to Nacional Asuncion24 October 2026
- W1-0Libertad Asuncion18 October 2026
What these results say
- Olimpia won every one of these 5 matches.
- Olimpia scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Olimpia had three goals or more.
- Sportivo Trinidense scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sportivo Trinidense kept a clean sheet in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Division Profesional - Clausura table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Olimpia | 19 | 13 | 3 | 3 | 37 | 14 | +23 | 42 |
| 2 | Sportivo Trinidense | 19 | 10 | 4 | 5 | 31 | 18 | +13 | 34 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Sportivo Trinidense
Chance to finish in the top four · 87% today
From our Division Profesional - Clausura season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Olimpia vs Sportivo Trinidense
- 6 September 2026Sportivo Trinidense 1–2 OlimpiaDivision Profesional - Clausura
- 1 April 2026Sportivo Trinidense 2–1 OlimpiaDivision Profesional - Apertura
- 5 March 2026Sportivo Trinidense 0–1 OlimpiaCONMEBOL Sudamericana
- 1 February 2026Olimpia 3–2 Sportivo TrinidenseDivision Profesional - Apertura
- 19 September 2025Olimpia 1–1 Sportivo TrinidenseDivision Profesional - Clausura
- 13 July 2025Sportivo Trinidense 4–3 OlimpiaDivision Profesional - Clausura
Leading scorers: Olimpia and Sportivo Trinidense
Olimpia
GoalsAssists
- G. Ávalos83
- A. Alcaraz71
- R. Benitez43
Sportivo Trinidense
GoalsAssists
- F. Romero71
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Olimpia a 99.8% chance of the title and Sportivo Trinidense 0.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Olimpia the highest probability at 53%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.93 expected goals for Olimpia against 1.06 for Sportivo Trinidense. Olimpia's attack/defence rating is 0.92/1.2 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.73/1.29 for Sportivo Trinidense.
How the model reaches 53% for Olimpia to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Olimpia to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, Olimpia's ratings add 5 points and Sportivo Trinidense's ratings add 4 points, which lands on the published 53%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Olimpia's ratings49%+5
- Sportivo Trinidense's ratings53%+4
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Olimpia at home · Sportivo Trinidense away
League matches only, Division Profesional - Clausura, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Division Profesional - Clausura matches this season: Olimpia 19, Sportivo Trinidense 19.
Sportivo Trinidense score most often in the 76–90 minute window (12 goals); Olimpia have let in 2 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Olimpia
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.