Clausura - 20 · 22 November 2026, 21:00 UTC

Rubio NU vs Libertad Asuncion Division Profesional - Clausura prediction

Our model says: Rubio NU 1–2 Libertad Asuncion

The model makes it 29% Rubio NU, 25% draw, 46% Libertad Asuncion — fair odds of 3.45, 4.00 and 2.17.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

Expected goals: Rubio NU 1.32, Libertad Asuncion 1.80.

Both teams to score: 62%. Over 2.5 goals: 60%, under 2.5: 40%.

Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,958 settled matches.

One-sided: Libertad Asuncion are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Rubio NU's rating is built from 19 Paraguayan Primera División Clausura matches and Libertad Asuncion's from 41, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.

Key facts

  • Rubio NU are 10th on 17 points from 19 games; Libertad Asuncion are 3rd on 33 points from 19 games — Division Profesional - Clausura.
  • Rubio NU have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-2 draw away to Club Sp. San Lorenzo.
  • Libertad Asuncion have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-0 win at home to Nacional Asuncion.
  • Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 6 September 2026, ended Libertad Asuncion 4–2 Rubio NU.

More Paraguayan Primera División Clausura predictions

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Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Rubio NU vs Libertad Asuncion

62%
Both teams to score
60%
Over 2.5 goals
40%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Rubio NU win Draw Libertad Asuncion win
  1. 1–111%
  2. 1–29%
  3. 0–17%
  4. 0–27%
  5. 2–17%
  6. 2–26%
  7. 1–36%

Scores read Rubio NU first; the other scorelines share the remaining 47%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Libertad Asuncion at 46%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Rubio NU vs Libertad Asuncion

Rubio NU

Division Profesional - Clausura

  • D2-2away to Club Sp. San Lorenzo9 November 2026
  • L0-5Sportivo Luqueno5 November 2026
  • W4-2away to Sportivo Trinidense30 October 2026
  • L0-2Club Guarani23 October 2026
  • L0-1away to Deportivo Recoleta16 October 2026

Libertad Asuncion

Division Profesional - Clausura

  • W3-0Nacional Asuncion7 November 2026
  • L0-1Cerro Porteno4 November 2026
  • L1-2away to Club Sp. San Lorenzo31 October 2026
  • W1-0Sportivo Luqueno23 October 2026
  • L0-1away to Sportivo Trinidense18 October 2026

What these results say

  • Rubio NU conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Rubio NU failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Division Profesional - Clausura table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
10Rubio NU1945102136-1517
3Libertad Asuncion1910362820+833

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Rubio NU

Chance to finish in the bottom three · 88% today

Win 70%
Draw 90%
Defeat 96%

Libertad Asuncion

Chance to finish in the top four · 86% today

Win 96%
Draw 84%
Defeat 69%

From our Division Profesional - Clausura season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Rubio NU vs Libertad Asuncion

  • 6 September 2026Libertad Asuncion 4–2 Rubio NUDivision Profesional - Clausura
  • 21 April 2026Rubio NU 3–0 Libertad AsuncionDivision Profesional - Apertura
  • 20 February 2026Libertad Asuncion 0–1 Rubio NUDivision Profesional - Apertura
  • 9 November 2017Rubio NU 2–4 Libertad AsuncionDivision Profesional - Clausura
  • 22 July 2017Libertad Asuncion 0–0 Rubio NUDivision Profesional - Clausura
  • 8 May 2017Libertad Asuncion 1–1 Rubio NUDivision Profesional - Apertura

Leading scorers: Rubio NU and Libertad Asuncion

Rubio NU

GoalsAssists

  • R. Ruiz Díaz43

Libertad Asuncion

GoalsAssists

  • E. Vera162

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

How the call on Rubio NU v Libertad Asuncion has moved

First published on 4 Nov at 35% / 26% / 39% (home / draw / away). After 4 updates it reads 29% / 25% / 46%: the biggest move is Libertad Asuncion's chance of winning, up 7 points.

  1. Rubio NU win29%▼ −6
  2. Draw25%▼ −1
  3. Libertad Asuncion win46%▲ +7

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Rubio NU Libertad Asuncion
0.6 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.7
2.14 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.35
1.32 Model expected goals (this match) 1.80

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Libertad Asuncion the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Rubio NU against 1.80 for Libertad Asuncion. Rubio NU's attack/defence rating is 0.6/2.14 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.7/1.35 for Libertad Asuncion.

How the model reaches 46% for Libertad Asuncion to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Libertad Asuncion to win. Then home advantage takes away 7 points, Rubio NU's ratings add 9 points and Libertad Asuncion's ratings add 8 points, which lands on the published 46%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage29%−7
  3. Rubio NU's ratings38%+9
  4. Libertad Asuncion's ratings46%+8

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

Rubio NULibertad Asuncion
19Matches19
4W 5D 10LRecord10W 3D 6L
21 1.1 per gameGoals scored28 1.5 per game
36 1.9 per gameGoals conceded20 1.1 per game
2 of 19Clean sheets5 of 19
9 of 19Failed to score4 of 19
3 of 5Penalties scored4 of 4
45 2.4 per gameYellow cards39 2.1 per game
5Red cards2
4-2-3-1 8×Usual shape4-4-2 12×

Rubio NU at home · Libertad Asuncion away

9Played9
1W 4D 4LRecord4W 1D 4L
7–15Goals for – against10–11
2 of 9Clean sheets2 of 9

League matches only, Division Profesional - Clausura, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Division Profesional - Clausura matches this season: Rubio NU 19, Libertad Asuncion 19.

Rubio NU scored 235533
Libertad Asuncion conceded 536132
Libertad Asuncion scored 334755
Rubio NU conceded 257579

Libertad Asuncion score most often in the 46–60 minute window (7 goals); Rubio NU have let in 5 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.