Clausura - 20 · 23 November 2026, 21:00 UTC

2 de Mayo vs Club Sp. San Lorenzo Division Profesional - Clausura prediction

Pedro Juan Caballero

Our model says: 2 de Mayo 1–0 Club Sp. San Lorenzo

The model makes it 50% 2 de Mayo, 28% draw, 22% Club Sp. San Lorenzo — fair odds of 2.00, 3.57 and 4.55.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (13%).

Expected goals: 2 de Mayo 1.58, Club Sp. San Lorenzo 0.85.

Both teams to score: 46%. Over 2.5 goals: 44%, under 2.5: 56%.

Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,154 settled matches.

Edge to 2 de Mayo: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. 2 de Mayo's rating is built from 41 Paraguayan Primera División Clausura matches and Club Sp. San Lorenzo's from 19, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.

Key facts

  • 2 de Mayo are 6th on 30 points from 19 games; Club Sp. San Lorenzo are bottom on 11 points from 19 games — Division Profesional - Clausura.
  • 2 de Mayo have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat away to Sportivo Luqueno.
  • Club Sp. San Lorenzo are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 2-2 draw at home to Rubio NU.
  • Last 6 meetings: 2 de Mayo 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 5 September 2026, ended Club Sp. San Lorenzo 1–2 2 de Mayo.

More Paraguayan Primera División Clausura predictions

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Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: 2 de Mayo vs Club Sp. San Lorenzo

46%
Both teams to score
44%
Over 2.5 goals
56%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

2 de Mayo win Draw Club Sp. San Lorenzo win
  1. 1–013%
  2. 1–112%
  3. 2–011%
  4. 0–09%
  5. 2–19%
  6. 0–17%
  7. 3–06%

Scores read 2 de Mayo first; the other scorelines share the remaining 33%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

2 de Mayo at 50%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into 2 de Mayo vs Club Sp. San Lorenzo

2 de Mayo

Division Profesional - Clausura

  • L0-3away to Sportivo Luqueno9 November 2026
  • D0-0Sportivo Trinidense3 November 2026
  • L0-1away to Club Guarani30 October 2026
  • D1-1Deportivo Recoleta24 October 2026
  • L0-3away to Olimpia17 October 2026

Club Sp. San Lorenzo

Division Profesional - Clausura

  • D2-2Rubio NU9 November 2026
  • W2-0away to Nacional Asuncion3 November 2026
  • W2-1Libertad Asuncion31 October 2026
  • L1-3Cerro Porteno25 October 2026
  • L2-3away to Sportivo Luqueno18 October 2026

What these results say

  • 2 de Mayo did not win any of these 5 matches.
  • 2 de Mayo failed to score in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 2 de Mayo conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Club Sp. San Lorenzo scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Club Sp. San Lorenzo conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Club Sp. San Lorenzo had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Division Profesional - Clausura table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
62 de Mayo198651821-330
12Club Sp. San Lorenzo1925121432-1811

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

2 de Mayo

Chance to finish in the top four · 12% today

Win 18%
Draw 5%
Defeat 3%

From our Division Profesional - Clausura season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: 2 de Mayo vs Club Sp. San Lorenzo

  • 5 September 2026Club Sp. San Lorenzo 1–2 2 de MayoDivision Profesional - Clausura
  • 22 May 20262 de Mayo 0–1 Club Sp. San LorenzoDivision Profesional - Apertura
  • 17 March 2026Club Sp. San Lorenzo 1–1 2 de MayoDivision Profesional - Apertura
  • 8 September 2023Club Sp. San Lorenzo 0–1 2 de MayoDivision Intermedia
  • 5 June 20232 de Mayo 2–1 Club Sp. San LorenzoDivision Intermedia
  • 11 July 2022Club Sp. San Lorenzo 1–0 2 de MayoDivision Intermedia

Leading scorers: 2 de Mayo and Club Sp. San Lorenzo

2 de Mayo

GoalsAssists

  • D. Acosta51

Club Sp. San Lorenzo

GoalsAssists

  • M. Ferreira51

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

How the call on 2 de Mayo v Club Sp. San Lorenzo has moved

First published on 4 Nov at 54% / 27% / 19% (home / draw / away). After 3 updates it reads 50% / 28% / 22%: the biggest move is 2 de Mayo's chance of winning, down 4 points.

  1. 2 de Mayo win50%▼ −4
  2. Draw28%▲ +1
  3. Club Sp. San Lorenzo win22%▲ +3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

2 de Mayo Club Sp. San Lorenzo
0.51 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.49
1.44 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.9
1.58 Model expected goals (this match) 0.85

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives 2 de Mayo the highest probability at 50%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.58 expected goals for 2 de Mayo against 0.85 for Club Sp. San Lorenzo. 2 de Mayo's attack/defence rating is 0.51/1.44 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.49/1.9 for Club Sp. San Lorenzo.

How the model reaches 50% for 2 de Mayo to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for 2 de Mayo to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides takes away 2 points, 2 de Mayo's ratings add 3 points and Club Sp. San Lorenzo's ratings add 5 points, which lands on the published 50%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage44%+8
  3. Both sides at this match's level42%−2
  4. 2 de Mayo's ratings45%+3
  5. Club Sp. San Lorenzo's ratings50%+5

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

2 de MayoClub Sp. San Lorenzo
19Matches19
8W 6D 5LRecord2W 5D 12L
18 0.9 per gameGoals scored14 0.7 per game
21 1.1 per gameGoals conceded32 1.7 per game
7 of 19Clean sheets2 of 19
7 of 19Failed to score9 of 19
2 of 2Penalties scored4 of 5
45 2.4 per gameYellow cards43 2.3 per game
4Red cards3
4-1-4-1 2×Usual shape4-4-2 12×

2 de Mayo at home · Club Sp. San Lorenzo away

9Played9
4W 4D 1LRecord1W 2D 6L
8–6Goals for – against7–14
5 of 9Clean sheets1 of 9

League matches only, Division Profesional - Clausura, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Division Profesional - Clausura matches this season: 2 de Mayo 19, Club Sp. San Lorenzo 19.

2 de Mayo scored 314353
Club Sp. San Lorenzo conceded 5263410

2 de Mayo score most often in the 61–75 minute window (5 goals); Club Sp. San Lorenzo have let in 4 there.

Club Sp. San Lorenzo scored 533210
2 de Mayo conceded 241337

Club Sp. San Lorenzo score most often in the 0–15 minute window (5 goals); 2 de Mayo have let in 2 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.