24 September 2026, 18:45 UTC

Norway vs Denmark UEFA Nations League prediction & result

Ullevaal Stadion, Oslo
Referee: Tobias Stieler
Full time3 – 2

Final score: Norway 3-2 Denmark.

Before kick-off the model made it 40% Norway, 28% draw, 32% Denmark — fair odds of 2.50, 3.57 and 3.13.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Norway at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Norway96%Draw4%Denmark0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Oscar Bobbassist: Martin Odegaard
14'
⚽Erling Haalandassist: Antonio Nusa
18'
25'
⚽Mikkel Damsgaard
38'
Rasmus Kristensen
60'
⚽Rasmus Hojlund
🔁Fredrik Aursnesout: David Moller Wolfe
66'
🔁Patrick Bergout: Andreas Schjelderup
66'
🔁Oscar Bobbout: Thelo Aasgaard
66'
David Moller Wolfe
68'
70'
Patrick Dorgu
⚽Erling Haalandassist: Martin Odegaard
74'
75'
🔁Patrick Dorguout: Gustav Isaksen
75'
🔁Victor Froholdtout: Mads Bidstrup
82'
🔁Rasmus Hojlundout: Kasper Hogh
82'
🔁Mikkel Damsgaardout: Albert Grönbaek
88'
🔁Morten Hjulmandout: Thomas Jorgensen
🔁Antonio Nusaout: Kristian Thorstvedt
89'
90+1'
Gustav Isaksen
David Moller Wolfe
90+3'

Match stats — Norway vs Denmark

49%Possession51%
13Shots13
7On target7
4Corners8

Line-ups

Norway 4-3-3
  • 1Ø. NylandG
  • 14J. RyersonD
  • 3K. AjerD
  • 17T. HeggemD
  • 7F. AursnesD
  • 10M. ØdegaardM
  • 8S. BergeM
  • 6P. BergM
  • 22Oscar BobbF
  • 9E. HaalandF
  • 20A. NusaF
Substitutes
  • 2O. BjørtuftD
  • 19T. AasgaardM
  • 15O. Didrik BlombergM
  • 23E. BotheimF
  • 11J. Strand LarsenF
  • 4L. ØstigårdD
  • 16M. PedersenD
  • 21A. SchjelderupF
  • 13E. SelvikG
Coach: S. Solbakken
Denmark 4-2-3-1
  • 22F. JörgensenG
  • 13R. KristensenD
  • 2J. AndersenD
  • 3O. ProvstgaardD
  • 5J. MæhleD
  • 21M. HjulmandM
  • 23P. HøjbjergM
  • 17P. DorguM
  • 7Victor Mow FroholdtM
  • 14M. DamsgaardM
  • 9R. HøjlundF
Substitutes
  • 11A. DaghimF
  • 20A. GrønbækM
  • 16M. HermansenG
  • 19K. HøghF
  • 4L. HøgsbergD
  • 8G. IsaksenF
  • 10T. JørgensenM
  • 1A. JungdalG
  • 6V. NelssonD
Coach: B. Riemer

UEFA Nations League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3Norway52039906
2Denmark5302118+39

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Norway vs Denmark

  • 8 June 2024Denmark 3–1 NorwayFriendlies

Leading scorers: Norway and Denmark

Norway

GoalsAssists

  • E. Haaland41

Denmark

GoalsAssists

  • R. Højlund50

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Norway beat Denmark 3–2. The model had made a win for Norway its most likely outcome, at 40%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Oscar Bobb 14' for Norway, Erling Haaland 18' for Norway, Mikkel Damsgaard 25' for Denmark, Rasmus Hojlund 60' for Denmark, Erling Haaland 74' for Norway. Sent off: David Moller Wolfe (Norway) 90+3'.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.