Portugal vs Wales UEFA Nations League prediction & result
Final score: Portugal 1-0 Wales.
Before kick-off the model made it 47% Portugal, 27% draw, 26% Wales — fair odds of 2.13, 3.70 and 3.85.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Nations League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Portugal at 47%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Portugal vs Wales
Line-ups
- 1Diogo CostaG
- 20João CanceloD
- 3Rúben DiasD
- 13Renato VeigaD
- 19Nuno MendesD
- 21Rúben NevesM
- 18Pedro NetoM
- 23VitinhaM
- 8Bruno FernandesM
- 11João FélixF
- 7Cristiano RonaldoF
- 14Francisco ConceiçãoF
- 16TrincãoF
- 5Nuno TavaresD
- 22Samuel SoaresG
- 12Rui SilvaG
- 10Bernardo SilvaM
- 9Gonçalo RamosF
- 4Tomás AraújoD
- 2Diogo DalotD
- 12D. WardG
- 3N. WilliamsD
- 6B. CabangoD
- 4B. DaviesD
- 15J. DasilvaD
- 5E. AmpaduM
- 22J. SheehanM
- 17J. JamesM
- 7D. BrooksF
- 9L. KoumasF
- 11B. JohnsonF
- 19S. ThomasF
- 8W. BurnsF
- 23J. ColwillM
- 14C. RobertsD
- 16R. Norrington-DaviesD
- 13K. MooreF
- 2C. MephamD
- 21T. KingG
- 20D. JamesF
UEFA Nations League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Portugal | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 12 |
| 4 | Wales | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 8 | -5 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Portugal vs Wales
- 6 July 2016Portugal 2–0 WalesEuro Championship
Leading scorers: Portugal and Wales
Portugal
GoalsAssists
- João Félix31
- Gonçalo Ramos31
Wales
No player in UEFA Nations League's leading scorers — 3 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Portugal beat Wales 1–0. The model had made a win for Portugal its most likely outcome, at 47%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goal: Joao Felix 22' for Portugal.